TBBuccaneers
4-6
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
034
ATLFalcons
6-4
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
7
7
20
Falcons
3
17
7
7
34
Spread
-10
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
373
516
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.5
8.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.28
Passing Yards
279
--
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.58
Rushing Yards
94
148
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
79%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.44
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.50
--
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-4.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+224
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,474
Home Field
+50.1
Base HFA
+55.8
Divisional Adj
-25.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.5
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9
EPA
EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23
EPA
EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
20
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
26
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U