nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ falcons week 12, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
4-6
20
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
34
ATLFalcons
6-4
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
3
7
7
20
Falcons
3
17
7
7
34

Spread

ATL logo
-10

Total

OVER
47

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
373
516
Total Plays
68
64
Yards / Play
5.5
8.1
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.28
Passing Yards
279
--
Comp/Att
27/44(61%)
27/36(75%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.05
+0.58
Rushing Yards
94
148
Rush Attempts
23
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
27
23
Passing 1st downs
18
16
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
--
3rd Down %
36%
79%
3rd Down Conversions
4
11
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
40%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-6.44
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.50
--
Penalties
2
4
Penalty Yards
--
42
Penalty EPA
--
-4.71

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-10.0
Model
-10.0

Win Probability

Market79.5%
Model79.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+224
Home nfelo
1,639
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+56.5
Divisional Adj
-25.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+7.2
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
235.4
Model Spread
-10.0

Quarterbacks

R. Fitzpatrick headshot

R. Fitzpatrick

Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Value
Ptile
10/02
-7.1
8
10/09
0.4
52
10/17
-4.1
19
10/30
-3.7
22
11/06
-5.2
15
11/27
3.6
76
12/05
-7.9
6
01/01
2.3
67
11/12
-4.0
25
11/19
2.3
69
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
09/10
3.2
75
09/17
-0.1
51
09/24
-2.1
38
10/01
-2.4
36
10/15
-1.1
44
10/22
3.7
79
10/29
3.6
79
11/05
2.3
68
11/12
1.5
64
11/20
3.6
79

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
7
8
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
27
9

EPA

EPA / Play
13
21
EPA / Pass
11
18
EPA / Rush
25
19

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
20
30
Fumbles / Game
32
18
Turnover EPA / Game
8
8

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
17
4th Down Efficiency
13
29
RZ Efficiency
23
2
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
15
22
Yards / Game
11
32
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
14
23

EPA

EPA / Play
7
28
EPA / Pass
7
29
EPA / Rush
20
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
13
Interceptions / Game
8
15
Fumbles / Game
13
9
Turnover EPA / Game
27
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
26
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/17
22
W
W
U
09/24
-17
L
L
O
10/01
2
W
L
O
10/05
-5
L
L
U
10/15
-5
L
L
O
10/22
-3
L
P
O
10/29
-14
L
L
U
11/05
-20
L
L
U
11/12
5
W
W
U
11/19
10
W
W
O
ATL logo

Falcons

6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
6
W
L
U
09/17
11
W
W
O
09/24
4
W
W
O
10/01
-6
L
L
U
10/15
-3
L
L
U
10/22
-16
L
L
U
10/29
5
W
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
U
11/12
20
W
W
U
11/20
3
W
W
O