TBBuccaneers
5-7
29
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
025
ATLFalcons
6-6
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
7
10
27
Falcons
3
7
0
15
25
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
290
436
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
4.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
142
340
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.06
Rushing Yards
148
96
Rush Attempts
37
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.04
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-9
Sack EPA
-1.37
-4.60
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
26
10
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-1.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market52.2%
Model55.9%
Spread Pick
Falcons-1.0
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,441
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+45.4
Divisional Adj
-20.5
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.6
Home QB Adjustment
-11.1
Away QB Adjustment
-17.8
Market Regression
+11.7
Final Difference
41.0
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-17.8
D. Ridder
Proj. Value
-1.6
Team Elo Adj
-11.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19
EPA
EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
30
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4
EPA
EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
25
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
30
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Falcons
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U