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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ falcons week 14, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
5-7
29
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
25
ATLFalcons
6-6
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
7
7
10
27
Falcons
3
7
0
15
25

Spread

TB logo
+1

Total

OVER
41.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
290
436
Total Plays
67
70
Yards / Play
4.3
6.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.08
Passing Yards
142
340
Comp/Att
14/29(48%)
26/41(63%)
Yards / Pass
4.9
8.3
EPA / Pass
+0.08
-0.06
Rushing Yards
148
96
Rush Attempts
37
26
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.05
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
16
23
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
38%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
6
5
3rd Down Attempts
16
13
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-6.04
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-2
-9
Sack EPA
-1.37
-4.60
Penalties
4
2
Penalty Yards
26
10
Penalty EPA
-2.97
-1.22

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-1.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market52.2%
Model55.7%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons-1.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.0%
Cover Probability
54.5%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+79
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,440
Home Field
+40.7
Base HFA
+45.3
Divisional Adj
-20.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+6.7
Home QB Adjustment
-11.0
Away QB Adjustment
-17.6
Market Regression
+10.3
Final Difference
39.6
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
Value
Ptile
09/25
-4.7
21
10/01
7.0
91
10/15
-5.4
17
10/22
-0.5
46
10/26
2.1
64
11/05
2.6
68
11/12
-0.2
48
11/19
-2.5
32
11/26
-4.6
21
12/03
-4.5
22
D. Ridder headshot

D. Ridder

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-11.0
Value
Ptile
09/10
-4.6
22
09/17
2.5
67
09/24
-10.6
2
10/01
-8.0
8
10/08
9.4
96
10/15
-3.1
28
10/22
5.3
83
10/29
-7.9
9
11/26
-2.0
35
12/03
-6.1
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Falcons Defense
Buccaneers logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
18
17
Yards / Game
20
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
31
19

EPA

EPA / Play
13
12
EPA / Pass
8
14
EPA / Rush
30
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
20
Interceptions / Game
9
29
Fumbles / Game
13
21
Turnover EPA / Game
28
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
3
4th Down Efficiency
2
12
RZ Efficiency
27
4
Falcons Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Falcons logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
26
5
Yards / Game
17
20
Passing Yards / Game
27
31
Rushing Yards / Game
8
4

EPA

EPA / Play
27
15
EPA / Pass
23
22
EPA / Rush
25
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
11
13
Interceptions / Game
27
18
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
6
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
22
4th Down Efficiency
29
7
RZ Efficiency
30
3

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-14
L
L
U
10/01
17
W
W
U
10/15
-14
L
L
U
10/22
-3
L
L
U
10/26
-6
L
W
U
11/05
-2
L
W
O
11/12
14
W
W
U
11/19
-13
L
W
U
11/26
-7
L
L
O
12/03
3
W
L
O
ATL logo

Falcons

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/24
-14
L
L
U
10/01
-16
L
L
U
10/08
2
W
L
U
10/15
-8
L
L
U
10/22
3
W
W
U
10/29
-5
L
L
O
11/05
-3
L
L
O
11/12
-2
L
L
O
11/26
9
W
W
U
12/03
5
W
W
U