nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ giants week 2, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-0
34
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
1 mph
41
NYGGiants
0-1
NYG logo
TBD
MetLife Stadium
73°F
1 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
15
3
7
28
Giants
6
7
3
25
41

Spread

TB logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo
Total Yards
307
606
Total Plays
52
77
Yards / Play
5.9
7.9
EPA / Play
+0.14
+0.15
Passing Yards
228
--
Comp/Att
15/28(54%)
31/51(61%)
Yards / Pass
8.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
+0.14
Rushing Yards
79
96
Rush Attempts
22
26
Yards / Rush
3.6
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.13
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo
1st Downs
14
31
Passing 1st downs
10
21
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
--
4
3rd Down %
20%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
2
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
100%
20%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo
Turnovers
2
3
Interceptions
2
3
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.44
-19.20
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-15
--
Sack EPA
-3.19
--
Penalties
5
7
Penalty Yards
33
53
Penalty EPA
-5.10
-9.83

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NYG logo
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-9.0
Current
-7.5
Model
-9.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model77.7%
Spread Pick
NYG logo
Giants-7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+5.5%
Cover Probability
55.3%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+251
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,420
Home Field
+84.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.8
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+6.3
Away QB Adjustment
-3.7
Market Regression
-0.0
Final Difference
216.8
Model Spread
-9.0

Quarterbacks

J. Freeman headshot

J. Freeman

Proj. Value
-3.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.7
Value
Ptile
10/23
-5.2
17
11/06
5.4
83
11/13
-8.7
4
11/20
4.4
78
11/27
-3.7
27
12/11
-4.9
19
12/17
-0.4
49
12/24
2.3
68
01/01
0.0
52
09/09
-2.2
34
E. Manning headshot

E. Manning

Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
+6.3
Value
Ptile
12/04
5.3
82
12/11
5.7
85
12/18
-8.0
6
12/24
-4.9
19
01/01
8.3
94
01/08
8.2
94
01/15
5.2
82
01/22
-1.1
44
02/05
3.6
74
09/05
-0.9
43

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Buccaneers logo
Giants logo

Total

Points / Game
12
10
Yards / Game
12
31
Passing Yards / Game
7
13
Rushing Yards / Game
16
24

EPA

EPA / Play
15
20
EPA / Pass
15
22
EPA / Rush
9
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
32
Interceptions / Game
22
3
Fumbles / Game
3
12
Turnover EPA / Game
21
30

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
8
4
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Giants logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
23
Yards / Game
16
29
Passing Yards / Game
32
17
Rushing Yards / Game
14
1

EPA

EPA / Play
3
18
EPA / Pass
12
25
EPA / Rush
7
2

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
26
Interceptions / Game
14
9
Fumbles / Game
13
26
Turnover EPA / Game
24
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
25
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
13
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

1-9
SU
2-8
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/06
-11
L
L
U
11/13
-28
L
L
O
11/20
-9
L
W
O
11/27
-6
L
L
U
12/04
-19
L
L
O
12/11
-27
L
L
O
12/17
-16
L
L
U
12/24
-32
L
L
O
01/01
-21
L
L
O
09/09
6
W
W
U
NYG logo

Giants

7-3
SU
8-2
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/04
-3
L
W
O
12/11
3
W
W
O
12/18
-13
L
L
U
12/24
15
W
W
U
01/01
17
W
W
U
01/08
22
W
W
U
01/15
17
W
W
O
01/22
3
W
W
U
02/05
4
W
W
U
09/05
-7
L
L
U