TBBuccaneers
3-6
35
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
1 mph
38
NYGGiants
2-7
TBD
MetLife Stadium
42°F
1 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
7
21
35
Giants
7
7
4
14
32
Spread
3
P
Total
OVER
54.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
510
359
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
7.5
6.8
EPA / Play
+0.20
+0.34
Passing Yards
359
196
Comp/Att
25/37(68%)
17/18(94%)
Yards / Pass
9.7
10.9
EPA / Pass
+0.22
+0.54
Rushing Yards
151
163
Rush Attempts
30
31
Yards / Rush
5.0
5.3
EPA / Rush
+0.19
+0.17
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
19
Passing 1st downs
18
10
Rushing 1st downs
10
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
67%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
9
9
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
4
0
Interceptions
4
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-15.42
--
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-7
-35
Sack EPA
-1.80
-7.30
Penalties
4
8
Penalty Yards
40
60
Penalty EPA
-3.43
-3.71
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NYGGiantsFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+57
Home nfelo
1,429
Away nfelo
1,431
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+57.6
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-18.9
Home QB Adjustment
-0.2
Away QB Adjustment
+18.7
Market Regression
+41.5
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.7
E. Manning
Proj. Value
-1.3
Team Elo Adj
-0.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Giants Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
23
Yards / Game
2
24
Passing Yards / Game
1
18
Rushing Yards / Game
28
21
EPA
EPA / Play
12
28
EPA / Pass
9
26
EPA / Rush
26
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
10
Interceptions / Game
32
7
Fumbles / Game
25
19
Turnover EPA / Game
2
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
27
4th Down Efficiency
5
32
RZ Efficiency
15
13
Giants Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
31
Yards / Game
16
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
32
Rushing Yards / Game
24
24
EPA
EPA / Play
13
31
EPA / Pass
15
31
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
14
Interceptions / Game
14
26
Fumbles / Game
3
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
21
22
4th Down Efficiency
10
7
RZ Efficiency
29
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
8-2
O/U
Giants
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U