TBBuccaneers
4-7
28
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
77°F
15 mph
11
JAXJaguars
4-7
TBD
TIAA Bank Stadium
77°F
15 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
9
10
0
3
22
Jaguars
0
0
3
8
11
Spread
-3
Total
UNDER
46.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
317
244
Total Plays
69
64
Yards / Play
4.6
3.8
EPA / Play
-0.12
-0.47
Passing Yards
241
195
Comp/Att
21/33(64%)
23/42(55%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
4.6
EPA / Pass
-0.02
-0.64
Rushing Yards
76
49
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
2.4
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
14
Passing 1st downs
12
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
41%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
17
14
Red Zone %
40%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
1
2
Turnover EPA
-5.98
-22.43
Sacks
4
5
Sack Yards
-27
-47
Sack EPA
-12.60
-18.72
Penalties
8
16
Penalty Yards
44
121
Penalty EPA
-7.45
-11.48
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+1.0
Current
-3.0
Model
+0.5
Win Probability
Market59.7%
Model49.3%
Spread Pick
Jaguars+3.0
Expected Value
+9.1%
Cover Probability
53.9%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+72
Home nfelo
1,454
Away nfelo
1,451
Home Field
+48.9
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+19.2
Home QB Adjustment
+12.4
Away QB Adjustment
-6.8
Market Regression
-21.6
Final Difference
5.2
Model Spread
-0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-6.8
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
+12.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Jaguars Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
21
Yards / Game
3
25
Passing Yards / Game
1
12
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
19
27
EPA / Pass
14
23
EPA / Rush
26
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
32
25
Fumbles / Game
22
25
Turnover EPA / Game
1
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
23
4th Down Efficiency
11
12
RZ Efficiency
4
16
Jaguars Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
29
Yards / Game
19
15
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
17
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
11
EPA / Pass
22
7
EPA / Rush
17
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
11
Interceptions / Game
7
18
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
17
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
4
4th Down Efficiency
15
19
RZ Efficiency
31
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
9-1
O/U
Jaguars
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U