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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ lions week 16, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
9-5
47
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
7
DETLions
5-9
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
13
21
13
0
47
Lions
0
0
1
0
1

Spread

TB logo
-12

Total

UNDER
55

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
588
186
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
8.4
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.67
Passing Yards
477
113
Comp/Att
31/42(74%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
11.4
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.76
Rushing Yards
111
73
Rush Attempts
26
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
30
12
Passing 1st downs
22
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.88
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-39
Sack EPA
-3.23
-8.56
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
65
117
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-6.38

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market83.8%
Model83.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-237
Home nfelo
1,385
Away nfelo
1,616
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.6
Market Regression
-67.6
Final Difference
-275.6
Model Spread
+11.0

Quarterbacks

T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
Value
Ptile
10/08
-0.8
39
10/18
1.6
55
10/25
12.9
98
11/02
2.7
65
11/08
-10.6
2
11/15
8.9
94
11/23
-2.9
24
11/29
3.2
68
12/13
1.6
55
12/20
2.6
64
J. Stafford headshot

J. Stafford

Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Value
Ptile
10/18
-1.6
33
10/25
1.6
55
11/01
0.3
48
11/08
-3.0
24
11/15
6.1
83
11/22
-9.9
4
11/26
-3.8
20
12/06
5.5
80
12/13
1.0
51
12/20
2.2
60

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Buccaneers logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28

EPA

EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
21
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Lions logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1

EPA

EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
29
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
10
11

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/08
-1
L
L
U
10/18
28
W
W
U
10/25
25
W
W
O
11/02
2
W
L
O
11/08
-35
L
L
U
11/15
23
W
W
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/29
-3
L
W
U
12/13
12
W
W
U
12/20
4
W
L
O
DET logo

Lions

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/18
18
W
W
U
10/25
1
W
W
U
11/01
-20
L
L
O
11/08
-14
L
L
O
11/15
3
W
W
O
11/22
-20
L
L
U
11/26
-16
L
L
O
12/06
4
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
W
U
12/20
-21
L
L
O