TBBuccaneers
9-5
47
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
07
DETLions
5-9
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
13
21
13
0
47
Lions
0
0
1
0
1
Spread
-12
Total
UNDER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
588
186
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
8.4
3.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
-0.67
Passing Yards
477
113
Comp/Att
31/42(74%)
21/31(68%)
Yards / Pass
11.4
3.6
EPA / Pass
+0.63
-0.76
Rushing Yards
111
73
Rush Attempts
26
15
Yards / Rush
4.3
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
12
Passing 1st downs
22
5
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
40%
10%
3rd Down Conversions
4
1
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
100%
NaN%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
--
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-9.88
Sacks
2
4
Sack Yards
-14
-39
Sack EPA
-3.23
-8.56
Penalties
8
11
Penalty Yards
65
117
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-6.38
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-12.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market83.8%
Model82.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-237
Home nfelo
1,384
Away nfelo
1,615
Home Field
+8.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-14.0
Home QB Adjustment
+1.6
Away QB Adjustment
+15.6
Market Regression
-67.3
Final Difference
-266.8
Model Spread
+11.0
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+15.6
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+1.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
32
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
12
32
Rushing Yards / Game
25
28
EPA
EPA / Play
5
32
EPA / Pass
5
32
EPA / Rush
21
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
10
Interceptions / Game
15
30
Fumbles / Game
4
27
Turnover EPA / Game
22
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
22
RZ Efficiency
11
31
Lions Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
20
7
Yards / Game
20
8
Passing Yards / Game
9
21
Rushing Yards / Game
30
1
EPA
EPA / Play
20
6
EPA / Pass
18
6
EPA / Rush
29
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
30
Interceptions / Game
17
3
Fumbles / Game
12
10
Turnover EPA / Game
7
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
17
4th Down Efficiency
24
13
RZ Efficiency
10
11
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Lions
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U