TBBuccaneers
3-4
28
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
8 mph
42
CARPanthers
5-2
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
62°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
7
7
28
Panthers
14
21
0
7
42
Spread
-6
Total
OVER
55.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
301
407
Total Plays
65
59
Yards / Play
4.6
6.9
EPA / Play
+0.01
+0.25
Passing Yards
219
228
Comp/Att
24/41(59%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
9.1
EPA / Pass
+0.09
+0.34
Rushing Yards
82
179
Rush Attempts
21
32
Yards / Rush
3.9
5.6
EPA / Rush
-0.26
+0.21
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
17
11
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
42%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
5
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.19
--
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-24
-19
Sack EPA
-3.99
-4.83
Penalties
8
9
Penalty Yards
49
84
Penalty EPA
-2.26
-12.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
CARPanthersFavored
Opening
-7.0
Current
-6.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model68.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,528
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+12.4
Home QB Adjustment
+31.3
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
-6.7
Final Difference
134.8
Model Spread
-5.5
Quarterbacks
R. Fitzpatrick
Proj. Value
+0.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
C. Newton
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
+31.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Panthers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
20
Yards / Game
2
16
Passing Yards / Game
1
23
Rushing Yards / Game
28
12
EPA
EPA / Play
12
27
EPA / Pass
9
27
EPA / Rush
26
16
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
26
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
25
10
Turnover EPA / Game
2
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
20
4th Down Efficiency
5
18
RZ Efficiency
15
28
Panthers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
31
Yards / Game
9
27
Passing Yards / Game
17
32
Rushing Yards / Game
4
24
EPA
EPA / Play
9
31
EPA / Pass
14
31
EPA / Rush
4
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
6
14
Interceptions / Game
25
26
Fumbles / Game
9
26
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
22
4th Down Efficiency
26
7
RZ Efficiency
12
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
7-3
O/U
Panthers
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U