TBBuccaneers
2-0
24
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LARRams
2-0
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
7
10
7
24
Rams
0
14
17
3
34
Spread
0
Total
OVER
55
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
446
407
Total Plays
71
63
Yards / Play
6.3
6.5
EPA / Play
+0.05
+0.23
Passing Yards
411
331
Comp/Att
41/55(75%)
27/38(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.5
8.7
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.47
Rushing Yards
35
76
Rush Attempts
13
24
Yards / Rush
2.7
3.2
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
27
22
Passing 1st downs
24
16
Rushing 1st downs
3
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
1
3rd Down %
46%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
6
10
3rd Down Attempts
13
15
Red Zone %
75%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
3
3
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-12
Sack EPA
-4.19
-1.63
Penalties
7
1
Penalty Yards
41
--
Penalty EPA
-4.73
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
+2.0
Current
N/A
Model
N/A
Win Probability
Market50.0%
Model50.0%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+11
Home nfelo
1,613
Away nfelo
1,667
Home Field
+73.8
Base HFA
+43.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.1
Time Adj
+15.5
Net QB Adjustment
-7.8
Home QB Adjustment
+7.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
-29.3
Final Difference
--
Model Spread
--
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+7.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
9
Yards / Game
3
13
Passing Yards / Game
9
27
Rushing Yards / Game
26
5
EPA
EPA / Play
4
6
EPA / Pass
6
9
EPA / Rush
11
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
28
Interceptions / Game
9
5
Fumbles / Game
19
28
Turnover EPA / Game
29
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
7
4th Down Efficiency
17
14
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Rams Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
7
Yards / Game
7
15
Passing Yards / Game
1
31
Rushing Yards / Game
27
3
EPA
EPA / Play
9
4
EPA / Pass
2
4
EPA / Rush
31
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
31
Interceptions / Game
26
8
Fumbles / Game
11
4
Turnover EPA / Game
14
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
17
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
10-0
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U