TBBuccaneers
2-1
26
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
09
NOSaints
2-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
0
14
0
12
26
Saints
3
0
3
3
9
Spread
+4.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
353
197
Total Plays
68
61
Yards / Play
5.2
3.2
EPA / Play
-0.01
-0.34
Passing Yards
239
127
Comp/Att
25/34(74%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
3.3
EPA / Pass
+0.21
-0.41
Rushing Yards
114
70
Rush Attempts
33
19
Yards / Rush
3.5
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.32
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
16
Passing 1st downs
13
9
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
53%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
15
14
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-4.10
-11.30
Sacks
1
3
Sack Yards
-7
-13
Sack EPA
-2.10
-5.93
Penalties
11
7
Penalty Yards
91
58
Penalty EPA
-8.49
-8.76
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+127
Home nfelo
1,523
Away nfelo
1,446
Home Field
+30.9
Base HFA
+42.9
Divisional Adj
-19.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.0
Time Adj
-7.7
Net QB Adjustment
+18.6
Home QB Adjustment
-9.1
Away QB Adjustment
-27.6
Market Regression
+27.3
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-27.6
D. Carr
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
-9.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
6
Yards / Game
20
13
Passing Yards / Game
8
16
Rushing Yards / Game
31
22
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
8
5
EPA / Rush
30
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
24
Interceptions / Game
9
3
Fumbles / Game
13
8
Turnover EPA / Game
28
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
2
3
RZ Efficiency
27
9
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
13
20
Passing Yards / Game
4
31
Rushing Yards / Game
21
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
15
EPA / Pass
14
22
EPA / Rush
24
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
13
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
10
4
Turnover EPA / Game
26
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
22
4th Down Efficiency
22
7
RZ Efficiency
18
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
1-9
O/U