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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ saints week 5, 2019

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
2-2
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0
31
NOSaints
3-1
NO logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
7
7
24
Saints
3
14
7
7
31

Spread

NO logo
-3

Total

OVER
46

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Total Yards
252
457
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
4.6
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
158
--
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.33
Rushing Yards
94
112
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.90
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-46
--
Sack EPA
-9.15
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-2.80

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
NO logo
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+109
Home nfelo
1,610
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+40.0
Base HFA
+55.6
Divisional Adj
-25.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.4
Time Adj
-9.9
Net QB Adjustment
-86.6
Home QB Adjustment
-83.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
Value
Ptile
11/25
7.6
91
12/02
2.3
64
12/09
-3.3
26
12/16
-5.9
13
12/23
3.9
74
12/30
7.6
91
09/08
-9.8
5
09/12
-2.3
36
09/22
1.3
62
09/29
7.9
93
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-83.3
Value
Ptile
11/29
-2.8
30
12/06
-8.9
3
12/10
3.3
75
12/20
9.6
96
12/27
-4.8
16
01/03
-9.1
3
01/10
-3.8
23
12/30
-5.6
15
09/22
2.8
71
09/29
-6.3
15

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Buccaneers logo
Saints logo

Total

Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4

EPA

EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
26
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Saints logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1

EPA

EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
14
1

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
13
5

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/25
18
W
W
U
12/02
7
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
12/16
-8
L
W
U
12/23
-7
L
P
U
12/30
-2
L
W
O
09/08
-14
L
L
U
09/12
6
W
W
U
09/22
-1
L
L
O
09/29
15
W
W
O
NO logo

Saints

7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/09
14
W
W
U
12/17
3
W
L
U
12/23
3
W
L
O
12/30
-19
L
L
O
01/13
6
W
L
U
01/20
-3
L
L
U
09/09
2
W
L
O
09/15
-18
L
L
U
09/22
6
W
W
O
09/29
2
W
W
U