TBBuccaneers
2-2
24
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
3-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
3
7
7
24
Saints
3
14
7
7
31
Spread
-3
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
252
457
Total Plays
55
67
Yards / Play
4.6
6.8
EPA / Play
-0.00
+0.09
Passing Yards
158
--
Comp/Att
15/27(56%)
28/36(78%)
Yards / Pass
5.9
--
EPA / Pass
+0.06
+0.33
Rushing Yards
94
112
Rush Attempts
22
31
Yards / Rush
4.3
3.6
EPA / Rush
-0.01
-0.11
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
12
18
Rushing 1st downs
5
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
27%
53%
3rd Down Conversions
3
8
3rd Down Attempts
11
15
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.90
Sacks
6
--
Sack Yards
-46
--
Sack EPA
-9.15
--
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
30
40
Penalty EPA
-3.12
-2.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-4.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market59.3%
Model59.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+111
Home nfelo
1,611
Away nfelo
1,454
Home Field
+39.5
Base HFA
+55.0
Divisional Adj
-24.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+19.2
Time Adj
-9.8
Net QB Adjustment
-86.6
Home QB Adjustment
-83.3
Away QB Adjustment
+3.3
Market Regression
-50.6
Final Difference
65.4
Model Spread
-3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+3.3
T. Bridgewater
Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-83.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
14
Yards / Game
3
10
Passing Yards / Game
1
20
Rushing Yards / Game
24
4
EPA
EPA / Play
19
8
EPA / Pass
14
13
EPA / Rush
26
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
29
Interceptions / Game
32
16
Fumbles / Game
22
9
Turnover EPA / Game
1
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
8
4th Down Efficiency
11
11
RZ Efficiency
4
24
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
29
Yards / Game
9
15
Passing Yards / Game
29
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
1
EPA
EPA / Play
5
11
EPA / Pass
4
7
EPA / Rush
13
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
11
Interceptions / Game
4
18
Fumbles / Game
1
2
Turnover EPA / Game
32
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
4
4th Down Efficiency
24
19
RZ Efficiency
14
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U