TBBuccaneers
3-2
51
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
027
NOSaints
2-3
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
11
7
7
20
45
Saints
0
21
0
0
21
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
594
303
Total Plays
73
66
Yards / Play
8.1
4.6
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.35
Passing Yards
317
222
Comp/Att
24/37(65%)
22/40(55%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
5.5
EPA / Pass
+0.09
-0.57
Rushing Yards
277
81
Rush Attempts
35
21
Yards / Rush
7.9
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.37
-0.20
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
31
19
Passing 1st downs
15
13
Rushing 1st downs
13
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
60%
31%
3rd Down Conversions
6
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
13
Red Zone %
80%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
3
Interceptions
3
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-14.12
-17.67
Sacks
1
5
Sack Yards
-8
-21
Sack EPA
-2.09
-8.10
Penalties
12
7
Penalty Yards
86
70
Penalty EPA
-10.74
-3.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-56
Home nfelo
1,511
Away nfelo
1,501
Home Field
+32.8
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
-8.2
Net QB Adjustment
-98.8
Home QB Adjustment
-86.6
Away QB Adjustment
+12.2
Market Regression
-66.7
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+1.3
Team Elo Adj
+12.2
S. Rattler
Proj. Value
-2.1
Team Elo Adj
-86.6
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
18
Yards / Game
3
30
Passing Yards / Game
8
28
Rushing Yards / Game
5
30
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
4
9
EPA / Rush
7
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
21
20
Interceptions / Game
24
12
Fumbles / Game
19
27
Turnover EPA / Game
14
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
21
4th Down Efficiency
8
10
RZ Efficiency
4
14
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
21
19
Passing Yards / Game
21
25
Rushing Yards / Game
15
3
EPA
EPA / Play
26
18
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
10
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
17
29
Fumbles / Game
4
13
Turnover EPA / Game
19
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
15
4th Down Efficiency
17
24
RZ Efficiency
12
7
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Saints
6-4
SU
7-3
ATS
5-5
O/U