TBBuccaneers
6-1
27
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
036
NOSaints
4-2
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
7
0
14
6
27
Saints
7
9
7
7
30
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
48.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
421
361
Total Plays
59
72
Yards / Play
7.1
5.0
EPA / Play
-0.11
+0.04
Passing Yards
350
209
Comp/Att
28/41(68%)
22/39(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.01
+0.00
Rushing Yards
71
152
Rush Attempts
15
32
Yards / Rush
4.7
4.8
EPA / Rush
-0.14
-0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
16
26
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
3
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
6
3rd Down %
62%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
8
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
43%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
7
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-18.69
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-25
-6
Sack EPA
-9.21
-1.56
Penalties
11
2
Penalty Yards
99
--
Penalty EPA
-10.93
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-74
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,687
Home Field
+43.9
Base HFA
+40.7
Divisional Adj
-18.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
+7.3
Net QB Adjustment
-38.9
Home QB Adjustment
-11.6
Away QB Adjustment
+27.3
Market Regression
+17.4
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+27.3
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-11.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
4
Yards / Game
3
6
Passing Yards / Game
9
13
Rushing Yards / Game
26
4
EPA
EPA / Play
4
1
EPA / Pass
6
3
EPA / Rush
11
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
18
Interceptions / Game
9
6
Fumbles / Game
19
18
Turnover EPA / Game
29
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
5
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
1
1
Saints Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
7
Yards / Game
28
15
Passing Yards / Game
31
31
Rushing Yards / Game
16
3
EPA
EPA / Play
28
4
EPA / Pass
24
4
EPA / Rush
27
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
25
31
Interceptions / Game
12
8
Fumbles / Game
3
4
Turnover EPA / Game
18
30
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
10
4th Down Efficiency
17
8
RZ Efficiency
16
6
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U