TBBuccaneers
2-5
34
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
6 mph
40
SEASeahawks
6-2
TBD
Lumen Field
54°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
OT
Total
Buccaneers
14
7
3
10
0
34
Seahawks
7
6
8
13
6
40
Spread
-4
Total
OVER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
494
Total Plays
72
69
Yards / Play
5.8
7.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.19
Passing Yards
319
349
Comp/Att
29/44(66%)
29/44(66%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
7.9
EPA / Pass
+0.24
+0.37
Rushing Yards
99
145
Rush Attempts
26
22
Yards / Rush
3.8
6.6
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
31
Passing 1st downs
19
23
Rushing 1st downs
7
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
43%
25%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
8
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
4
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-6.80
-4.94
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-16
-31
Sack EPA
-8.35
-5.11
Penalties
10
4
Penalty Yards
82
45
Penalty EPA
-9.62
-4.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SEASeahawksFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-4.0
Model
-7.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model72.0%
Spread Pick
Seahawks-4.0
Expected Value
+19.2%
Cover Probability
61.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+211
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+77.7
Base HFA
+50.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+17.8
Time Adj
+9.1
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-17.6
Market Regression
-2.7
Final Difference
164.3
Model Spread
-7.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-17.6
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Seahawks Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
19
Yards / Game
3
23
Passing Yards / Game
1
7
Rushing Yards / Game
24
22
EPA
EPA / Play
19
19
EPA / Pass
14
18
EPA / Rush
26
25
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
9
Interceptions / Game
32
9
Fumbles / Game
22
4
Turnover EPA / Game
1
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
18
4th Down Efficiency
11
20
RZ Efficiency
4
23
Seahawks Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
29
Yards / Game
6
15
Passing Yards / Game
10
31
Rushing Yards / Game
6
1
EPA
EPA / Play
9
11
EPA / Pass
7
7
EPA / Rush
19
1
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
11
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
31
2
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
15
4
4th Down Efficiency
10
19
RZ Efficiency
7
5
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
2-8
SU
4-5-1
ATS
6-4
O/U
Seahawks
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U