TBBuccaneers
3-4
37
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
039
HOUTexans
3-4
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
10
7
6
14
37
Texans
7
3
12
17
39
Spread
+2.5
Total
OVER
39.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
332
498
Total Plays
63
65
Yards / Play
5.3
7.7
EPA / Play
+0.24
+0.20
Passing Yards
251
443
Comp/Att
21/30(70%)
30/43(70%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
10.3
EPA / Pass
+0.35
+0.57
Rushing Yards
81
55
Rush Attempts
31
19
Yards / Rush
2.6
2.9
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.29
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
26
Passing 1st downs
10
22
Rushing 1st downs
8
2
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
23%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
3
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
11
Red Zone %
80%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-0.03
-3.30
Sacks
2
3
Sack Yards
-14
-27
Sack EPA
-0.27
-3.90
Penalties
9
9
Penalty Yards
90
115
Penalty EPA
-9.19
-12.41
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.1%
Model56.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,415
Away nfelo
1,463
Home Field
+50.8
Base HFA
+43.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.2
Time Adj
-7.8
Net QB Adjustment
+23.6
Home QB Adjustment
+10.1
Away QB Adjustment
-13.6
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
42.6
Model Spread
-2.5
Quarterbacks
B. Mayfield
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
-13.6
C. Stroud
Proj. Value
-1.9
Team Elo Adj
+10.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Texans Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
11
Yards / Game
20
15
Passing Yards / Game
8
6
Rushing Yards / Game
31
8
EPA
EPA / Play
13
13
EPA / Pass
8
16
EPA / Rush
30
9
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
15
Interceptions / Game
9
15
Fumbles / Game
13
25
Turnover EPA / Game
28
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
6
4th Down Efficiency
2
18
RZ Efficiency
27
15
Texans Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
5
Yards / Game
15
20
Passing Yards / Game
21
31
Rushing Yards / Game
28
4
EPA
EPA / Play
14
15
EPA / Pass
11
22
EPA / Rush
27
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
13
Interceptions / Game
1
18
Fumbles / Game
13
4
Turnover EPA / Game
32
19
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
20
22
4th Down Efficiency
31
7
RZ Efficiency
16
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Texans
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U