TBBuccaneers
1-0
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
034
MINVikings
1-1
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
14
0
17
Vikings
7
14
10
3
34
Spread
+1
Total
OVER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
342
494
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
6.7
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.20
Passing Yards
316
--
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.63
Rushing Yards
26
125
Rush Attempts
9
37
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
19
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
6
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.84
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.58
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
37
53
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-1.33
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-53
Home nfelo
1,493
Away nfelo
1,509
Home Field
+67.2
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.0
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
-105.0
Home QB Adjustment
-111.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
+30.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0
Quarterbacks
J. Winston
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-111.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2
EPA
EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23
EPA
EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
26
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
12
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Buccaneers
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Vikings
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U