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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. buccaneers @ vikings week 3, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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TB logo
TBBuccaneers
1-0
17
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
34
MINVikings
1-1
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Buccaneers
3
0
14
0
17
Vikings
7
14
10
3
34

Spread

MIN logo
+1

Total

OVER
41

Game Statistics

General
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
342
494
Total Plays
51
70
Yards / Play
6.7
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.05
+0.20
Passing Yards
316
--
Comp/Att
28/40(70%)
25/33(76%)
Yards / Pass
7.9
--
EPA / Pass
-0.01
+0.63
Rushing Yards
26
125
Rush Attempts
9
37
Yards / Rush
2.9
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.23
-0.16
Downs & Conversions
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
20
25
Passing 1st downs
19
16
Rushing 1st downs
--
7
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
17%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
1
7
3rd Down Attempts
6
13
Red Zone %
100%
60%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
5
Negative Plays
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
3
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-14.84
--
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.58
--
Penalties
7
5
Penalty Yards
37
53
Penalty EPA
-5.51
-1.33

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-1.0

Win Probability

Market52.3%
Model52.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-51
Home nfelo
1,494
Away nfelo
1,508
Home Field
+68.0
Base HFA
+58.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
-10.4
Net QB Adjustment
-105.0
Home QB Adjustment
-111.2
Away QB Adjustment
-6.3
Market Regression
+30.1
Final Difference
-16.0
Model Spread
+1.0

Quarterbacks

J. Winston headshot

J. Winston

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Value
Ptile
11/03
2.9
71
11/13
0.0
49
11/20
4.5
81
11/27
3.7
76
12/04
0.0
48
12/11
-3.6
22
12/18
-9.4
3
12/24
-1.0
41
01/01
-3.9
20
09/17
-1.8
40
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-111.2
Value
Ptile
09/12
-10.4
2
09/18
-2.1
34
09/25
-3.0
27
10/02
2.9
71
10/09
-5.1
15
10/16
8.9
94
10/23
-8.1
5
11/06
-3.5
23
11/13
-5.5
14
09/17
-4.6
21

Team Matchup Ranks

Buccaneers Offense vs Vikings Defense
Buccaneers logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
18
2
Yards / Game
7
2
Passing Yards / Game
1
17
Rushing Yards / Game
27
2

EPA

EPA / Play
13
3
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
25
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
1
26
Interceptions / Game
20
13
Fumbles / Game
32
32
Turnover EPA / Game
8
14

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
1
4th Down Efficiency
13
12
RZ Efficiency
23
4
Vikings Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Vikings logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
10
22
Yards / Game
10
32
Passing Yards / Game
26
3
Rushing Yards / Game
8
23

EPA

EPA / Play
11
28
EPA / Pass
9
29
EPA / Rush
26
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
14
13
Interceptions / Game
6
15
Fumbles / Game
11
9
Turnover EPA / Game
23
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
1
32
4th Down Efficiency
31
1
RZ Efficiency
12
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

TB logo

Buccaneers

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-6-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/03
-15
L
L
O
11/13
26
W
W
O
11/20
2
W
W
U
11/27
9
W
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
P
12/11
5
W
W
U
12/18
-6
L
W
U
12/24
-7
L
L
O
01/01
1
W
L
U
09/17
22
W
W
U
MIN logo

Vikings

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/13
-6
L
L
O
11/20
6
W
W
O
11/24
-3
L
L
U
12/01
-2
L
W
U
12/11
9
W
W
O
12/18
-28
L
L
U
12/24
-13
L
L
O
01/01
28
W
W
O
09/11
10
W
W
O
09/17
-17
L
L
U