ARICardinals
1-3
33
TBD
Levi's Stadium
75°F
16 mph
21
SF49ers
1-3
TBD
Levi's Stadium
75°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
14
10
31
49ers
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
-3.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
288
286
Total Plays
66
74
Yards / Play
4.4
3.9
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.16
Passing Yards
116
135
Comp/Att
11/28(39%)
18/31(58%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
4.4
EPA / Pass
-0.21
-0.44
Rushing Yards
172
151
Rush Attempts
37
36
Yards / Rush
4.6
4.2
EPA / Rush
+0.15
+0.02
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
25
Passing 1st downs
6
12
Rushing 1st downs
10
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
31%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
14
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-15.83
Sacks
1
7
Sack Yards
-8
-27
Sack EPA
-1.34
-9.67
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
50
34
Penalty EPA
-8.62
-3.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-100
Home nfelo
1,403
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+41.7
Base HFA
+57.3
Divisional Adj
-25.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+50.8
Home QB Adjustment
-7.7
Away QB Adjustment
-58.6
Market Regression
-45.6
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-58.6
B. Gabbert
Proj. Value
-3.9
Team Elo Adj
-7.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
32
Yards / Game
8
32
Passing Yards / Game
5
27
Rushing Yards / Game
17
32
EPA
EPA / Play
20
29
EPA / Pass
21
29
EPA / Rush
20
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
32
3
Interceptions / Game
26
22
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
7
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
29
4th Down Efficiency
14
22
RZ Efficiency
5
28
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
26
14
Yards / Game
31
2
Passing Yards / Game
29
18
Rushing Yards / Game
4
9
EPA
EPA / Play
29
2
EPA / Pass
30
3
EPA / Rush
10
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
7
Interceptions / Game
11
14
Fumbles / Game
29
5
Turnover EPA / Game
9
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
13
RZ Efficiency
4
17
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
3-7
SU
4-6
ATS
4-6
O/U