ARICardinals
1-3
24
TBD
Levi's Stadium
89°F
3 mph
23
SF49ers
2-2
TBD
Levi's Stadium
89°F
3 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
3
11
24
49ers
10
7
0
0
17
Spread
+7
Total
UNDER
49
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
360
384
Total Plays
58
63
Yards / Play
6.2
6.1
EPA / Play
+0.02
-0.06
Passing Yards
189
231
Comp/Att
19/30(63%)
19/35(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
-0.06
-0.03
Rushing Yards
171
153
Rush Attempts
27
26
Yards / Rush
6.3
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.28
-0.07
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
22
Passing 1st downs
10
13
Rushing 1st downs
9
9
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
30%
55%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
33%
17%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-6.12
-13.06
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-6
-13
Sack EPA
-1.39
-2.87
Penalties
1
4
Penalty Yards
--
21
Penalty EPA
--
-3.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-7.5
Win Probability
Market72.8%
Model73.8%
Spread Pick
49ers-7.0
Expected Value
+4.3%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+216
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,439
Home Field
+17.1
Base HFA
+46.3
Divisional Adj
-20.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-8.3
Net QB Adjustment
-6.7
Home QB Adjustment
+8.1
Away QB Adjustment
+14.8
Market Regression
-5.1
Final Difference
180.2
Model Spread
-7.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+14.8
B. Purdy
Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.1
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
29
Yards / Game
11
7
Passing Yards / Game
28
2
Rushing Yards / Game
7
18
EPA
EPA / Play
8
30
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
5
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
21
Interceptions / Game
11
18
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
20
15
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
25
4th Down Efficiency
27
26
RZ Efficiency
17
31
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
16
Yards / Game
4
20
Passing Yards / Game
2
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
20
EPA
EPA / Play
11
25
EPA / Pass
9
24
EPA / Rush
13
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
28
Interceptions / Game
26
25
Fumbles / Game
22
19
Turnover EPA / Game
7
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
28
4th Down Efficiency
23
17
RZ Efficiency
14
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
49ers
5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-3-1
O/U