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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ 49ers week 9, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-4
20
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
8 mph
10
SF49ers
0-8
SF logo
TBD
Levi's Stadium
61°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
7
0
6
20
49ers
0
3
7
0
10

Spread

ARI logo
-2.5

Total

UNDER
39

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Total Yards
368
329
Total Plays
73
73
Yards / Play
5.0
4.5
EPA / Play
-0.15
-0.35
Passing Yards
--
266
Comp/Att
15/30(50%)
24/51(47%)
Yards / Pass
--
5.2
EPA / Pass
+0.06
-0.49
Rushing Yards
167
63
Rush Attempts
43
17
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.27
+0.11
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
1st Downs
20
17
Passing 1st downs
11
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
44%
35%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
16
17
Red Zone %
40%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
49ers logo
Turnovers
2
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-9.37
-13.66
Sacks
--
5
Sack Yards
--
-28
Sack EPA
--
-7.72
Penalties
2
8
Penalty Yards
25
53
Penalty EPA
-3.21
-7.36

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model56.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-66
Home nfelo
1,377
Away nfelo
1,429
Home Field
-23.3
Base HFA
+57.0
Divisional Adj
-25.7
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-44.4
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+9.8
Home QB Adjustment
-41.0
Away QB Adjustment
-50.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-46.1
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

D. Stanton headshot

D. Stanton

Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-50.8
Value
Ptile
12/19
5.7
86
09/14
-7.7
9
09/21
3.4
74
10/05
-6.6
12
11/16
2.1
66
11/23
-6.3
14
11/30
-0.2
48
12/07
-0.6
46
12/11
-4.0
26
10/06
-4.5
17
C. Beathard headshot

C. Beathard

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
-41.0
Value
Ptile
10/22
-2.3
37
10/29
-8.6
6

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Cardinals logo
49ers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
25
Yards / Game
23
25
Passing Yards / Game
8
4
Rushing Yards / Game
30
22

EPA

EPA / Play
30
25
EPA / Pass
29
26
EPA / Rush
31
11

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
10
Interceptions / Game
28
25
Fumbles / Game
10
9
Turnover EPA / Game
5
15

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
30
4th Down Efficiency
20
32
RZ Efficiency
30
26
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
49ers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
19
18
Yards / Game
12
4
Passing Yards / Game
11
24
Rushing Yards / Game
20
6

EPA

EPA / Play
16
6
EPA / Pass
17
9
EPA / Rush
9
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
6
3
Interceptions / Game
23
12
Fumbles / Game
13
23
Turnover EPA / Game
10
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
6
4th Down Efficiency
19
13
RZ Efficiency
28
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
38
W
W
O
09/10
-12
L
L
O
09/17
3
W
L
U
09/25
-11
L
L
U
10/01
3
W
L
U
10/08
-27
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
W
O
10/22
-33
L
L
U
SF logo

49ers

1-9
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/24
1
W
W
O
01/01
-2
L
W
O
09/10
-20
L
L
U
09/17
-3
L
W
U
09/21
-2
L
W
O
10/01
-3
L
W
U
10/08
-3
L
L
O
10/15
-2
L
W
O
10/22
-30
L
L
O
10/29
-23
L
L
U