ARICardinals
7-1
31
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
8 mph
17
SF49ers
3-4
TBD
Levi's Stadium
57°F
8 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
14
3
14
0
31
49ers
0
7
7
3
17
Spread
+5.5
Total
OVER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
437
337
Total Plays
68
56
Yards / Play
6.4
6.0
EPA / Play
+0.23
-0.07
Passing Yards
274
298
Comp/Att
23/27(85%)
28/40(70%)
Yards / Pass
10.1
7.5
EPA / Pass
+0.61
-0.11
Rushing Yards
163
39
Rush Attempts
39
11
Yards / Rush
4.2
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.00
-0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
22
22
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
3
3rd Down %
47%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
67%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
3
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-10.04
Sacks
2
5
Sack Yards
-8
-28
Sack EPA
-2.01
-7.96
Penalties
9
2
Penalty Yards
84
25
Penalty EPA
-6.38
-3.24
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
SF49ersFavored
Opening
+2.5
Current
-5.5
Model
-5.0
Win Probability
Market68.0%
Model66.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+87
Home nfelo
1,565
Away nfelo
1,608
Home Field
+36.4
Base HFA
+40.6
Divisional Adj
-18.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.2
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+94.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.7
Away QB Adjustment
-93.3
Market Regression
+98.1
Final Difference
121.9
Model Spread
-5.0
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-93.3
J. Garoppolo
Proj. Value
-0.8
Team Elo Adj
+0.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs 49ers Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
5
Yards / Game
9
4
Passing Yards / Game
10
19
Rushing Yards / Game
14
6
EPA
EPA / Play
14
13
EPA / Pass
11
13
EPA / Rush
12
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
24
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
1
15
Turnover EPA / Game
24
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
21
4th Down Efficiency
10
5
RZ Efficiency
14
13
49ers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
15
16
Yards / Game
11
12
Passing Yards / Game
26
10
Rushing Yards / Game
7
21
EPA
EPA / Play
11
9
EPA / Pass
8
15
EPA / Rush
15
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
15
Interceptions / Game
20
19
Fumbles / Game
30
2
Turnover EPA / Game
19
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
13
4th Down Efficiency
24
9
RZ Efficiency
6
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
49ers
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U