ARICardinals
1-0
48
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
6 mph
23
CHIBears
0-1
TBD
Soldier Field
70°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
14
8
14
6
42
Bears
7
13
3
0
23
Spread
-2
Total
OVER
45.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
300
335
Total Plays
52
62
Yards / Play
5.8
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.45
-0.11
Passing Yards
--
226
Comp/Att
17/24(71%)
22/32(69%)
Yards / Pass
--
7.1
EPA / Pass
+0.47
-0.28
Rushing Yards
115
109
Rush Attempts
28
28
Yards / Rush
4.1
3.9
EPA / Rush
+0.06
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
18
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
3
3
3rd Down %
56%
17%
3rd Down Conversions
5
2
3rd Down Attempts
9
12
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
4
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
2
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.20
-5.54
Sacks
--
2
Sack Yards
--
-15
Sack EPA
--
-3.11
Penalties
8
14
Penalty Yards
58
170
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-15.04
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-1.5
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0
Win Probability
Market54.7%
Model54.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-21
Home nfelo
1,421
Away nfelo
1,493
Home Field
+73.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+11.2
Net QB Adjustment
-22.0
Home QB Adjustment
-2.7
Away QB Adjustment
+19.3
Market Regression
-7.7
Final Difference
-32.8
Model Spread
+2.0
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+19.3
J. Cutler
Proj. Value
-2.3
Team Elo Adj
-2.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Bears Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
20
Yards / Game
2
14
Passing Yards / Game
2
10
Rushing Yards / Game
12
22
EPA
EPA / Play
2
28
EPA / Pass
3
22
EPA / Rush
11
26
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
20
Interceptions / Game
23
30
Fumbles / Game
28
26
Turnover EPA / Game
11
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
29
4th Down Efficiency
6
9
RZ Efficiency
10
22
Bears Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
22
13
Yards / Game
19
7
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
11
8
EPA
EPA / Play
14
11
EPA / Pass
17
8
EPA / Rush
10
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
11
27
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
21
8
Turnover EPA / Game
18
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
7
12
4th Down Efficiency
5
12
RZ Efficiency
27
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Bears
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U