ARICardinals
3-0
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
71°F
10 mph
41
DENBroncos
2-1
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
71°F
10 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
6
7
7
0
20
Broncos
7
14
3
17
41
Spread
-8
Total
OVER
47
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
215
568
Total Plays
56
76
Yards / Play
3.8
7.5
EPA / Play
-0.24
+0.10
Passing Yards
178
476
Comp/Att
12/34(35%)
31/47(66%)
Yards / Pass
5.2
10.1
EPA / Pass
-0.14
+0.32
Rushing Yards
37
92
Rush Attempts
19
28
Yards / Rush
1.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.38
-0.13
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
9
24
Passing 1st downs
7
18
Rushing 1st downs
1
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
19%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
16
16
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
2
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-9.56
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-3
Sack EPA
-5.21
-1.25
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
15
67
Penalty EPA
-0.85
-5.85
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-8.0
Model
-8.0
Win Probability
Market75.7%
Model75.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+167
Home nfelo
1,627
Away nfelo
1,538
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+17.9
Away Bye Adj
-48.6
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+47.3
Home QB Adjustment
+14.2
Away QB Adjustment
-33.1
Market Regression
+12.1
Final Difference
197.4
Model Spread
-8.0
Quarterbacks
D. Stanton
Proj. Value
-2.4
Team Elo Adj
-33.1
P. Manning
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
+14.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
17
Yards / Game
28
3
Passing Yards / Game
28
5
Rushing Yards / Game
31
2
EPA
EPA / Play
26
10
EPA / Pass
20
9
EPA / Rush
31
6
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
31
Interceptions / Game
13
6
Fumbles / Game
5
28
Turnover EPA / Game
19
10
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
19
6
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
28
25
Broncos Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
4
5
Yards / Game
5
25
Passing Yards / Game
4
26
Rushing Yards / Game
15
17
EPA
EPA / Play
7
3
EPA / Pass
5
6
EPA / Rush
9
10
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
22
Interceptions / Game
16
9
Fumbles / Game
5
24
Turnover EPA / Game
27
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
8
4th Down Efficiency
17
5
RZ Efficiency
4
3
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
7-2-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
7-3
SU
4-6
ATS
3-7
O/U