ARICardinals
4-9
15
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
37°F
4 mph
24
DENBroncos
3-10
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
37°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
6
3
6
15
Broncos
3
0
7
14
24
Spread
-1.5
Total
OVER
37.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
240
324
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.0
4.8
EPA / Play
-0.25
-0.10
Passing Yards
167
156
Comp/Att
20/37(54%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
4.5
6.0
EPA / Pass
-0.47
-0.23
Rushing Yards
73
168
Rush Attempts
20
34
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.04
+0.03
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
13
23
Passing 1st downs
8
10
Rushing 1st downs
4
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
17%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
2
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
11
Red Zone %
100%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
2
Interceptions
3
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-12.29
-7.40
Sacks
3
7
Sack Yards
-6
-41
Sack EPA
-2.46
-13.03
Penalties
7
4
Penalty Yards
46
31
Penalty EPA
-11.12
-2.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-1.0
Current
-1.5
Model
-1.5
Win Probability
Market53.2%
Model53.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+27
Home nfelo
1,458
Away nfelo
1,408
Home Field
+40.8
Base HFA
+40.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
-64.8
Home QB Adjustment
-108.6
Away QB Adjustment
-43.8
Market Regression
+7.0
Final Difference
22.3
Model Spread
-1.5
Quarterbacks
D. McCoy
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-43.8
B. Rypien
Proj. Value
-4.4
Team Elo Adj
-108.6
Value
Ptile
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
12
Yards / Game
22
8
Passing Yards / Game
7
9
Rushing Yards / Game
22
10
EPA
EPA / Play
30
13
EPA / Pass
28
7
EPA / Rush
15
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
1
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
7
20
Turnover EPA / Game
9
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
26
2
4th Down Efficiency
24
30
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Broncos Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
31
Yards / Game
21
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
4
Rushing Yards / Game
21
14
EPA
EPA / Play
28
21
EPA / Pass
29
22
EPA / Rush
27
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
10
Interceptions / Game
22
22
Fumbles / Game
11
10
Turnover EPA / Game
12
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
27
4th Down Efficiency
16
15
RZ Efficiency
14
28
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Broncos
1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
2-8
O/U