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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ buccaneers week 13, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-8
17
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
8 mph
20
TBBuccaneers
6-5
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
80°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
7
7
17
Buccaneers
0
10
7
3
20

Spread

ARI logo
+4

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
386
279
Total Plays
61
57
Yards / Play
6.3
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.07
-0.00
Passing Yards
291
184
Comp/Att
29/40(73%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
7.3
6.6
EPA / Pass
+0.14
+0.06
Rushing Yards
95
95
Rush Attempts
19
27
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
-0.37
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
22
13
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
38%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
8
16
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.16
--
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-10
-10
Sack EPA
-2.26
-3.09
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
33
--
Penalty EPA
-3.37
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-5.0

Win Probability

Market64.7%
Model67.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+156
Home nfelo
1,498
Away nfelo
1,432
Home Field
+59.5
Base HFA
+43.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+15.7
Net QB Adjustment
+30.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.7
Away QB Adjustment
-40.3
Market Regression
+11.6
Final Difference
124.6
Model Spread
-5.0

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-40.3
Value
Ptile
09/15
-4.7
18
09/19
-7.3
7
09/29
-8.3
4
10/06
-4.6
19
10/12
2.1
65
10/19
0.1
52
11/03
-0.2
49
11/09
-1.6
39
11/16
9.7
97
11/23
-1.1
42
B. Mayfield headshot

B. Mayfield

Proj. Value
-0.2
Team Elo Adj
-9.7
Value
Ptile
09/15
2.2
66
09/21
4.4
79
09/28
0.5
56
10/05
11.1
98
10/12
4.5
80
10/20
-6.3
11
10/26
-5.6
14
11/09
4.2
78
11/16
2.6
69
11/23
-9.9
3

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Cardinals logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
23
23
Yards / Game
19
20
Passing Yards / Game
5
24
Rushing Yards / Game
29
7

EPA

EPA / Play
26
16
EPA / Pass
18
20
EPA / Rush
26
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
16
Interceptions / Game
11
13
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
22

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
21
4th Down Efficiency
30
6
RZ Efficiency
22
30
Buccaneers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Buccaneers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
18
29
Yards / Game
22
26
Passing Yards / Game
11
27
Rushing Yards / Game
21
25

EPA

EPA / Play
22
28
EPA / Pass
24
27
EPA / Rush
9
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
15
6
Interceptions / Game
11
17
Fumbles / Game
6
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
13
26
4th Down Efficiency
27
8
RZ Efficiency
21
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/14
5
W
L
O
09/21
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-1
L
L
O
10/12
-4
L
W
O
10/19
-4
L
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-19
L
L
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
TB logo

Buccaneers

5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/15
1
W
W
U
09/21
2
W
L
O
09/28
-6
L
L
O
10/05
3
W
W
O
10/12
11
W
W
O
10/20
-15
L
L
U
10/26
20
W
W
U
11/09
-5
L
L
O
11/16
-12
L
L
O
11/23
-27
L
L
U