ARICardinals
2-6
14
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
43°F
5 mph
26
KCChiefs
8-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
43°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
7
0
14
Chiefs
10
10
0
6
26
Spread
+16
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
260
330
Total Plays
69
57
Yards / Play
3.8
5.8
EPA / Play
-0.08
+0.12
Passing Yards
166
212
Comp/Att
22/39(56%)
21/29(72%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
7.3
EPA / Pass
-0.28
+0.20
Rushing Yards
94
118
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
5.1
EPA / Rush
+0.05
-0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
20
Passing 1st downs
13
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
50%
36%
3rd Down Conversions
7
4
3rd Down Attempts
14
11
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.96
--
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-42
-37
Sack EPA
-7.69
-7.70
Penalties
3
8
Penalty Yards
30
63
Penalty EPA
-2.79
-3.09
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-17.0
Current
-16.0
Model
-16.0
Win Probability
Market89.8%
Model89.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+313
Home nfelo
1,628
Away nfelo
1,413
Home Field
+23.2
Base HFA
+57.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-45.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+75.1
Home QB Adjustment
+35.3
Away QB Adjustment
-39.9
Market Regression
-1.5
Final Difference
374.5
Model Spread
-16.0
Quarterbacks
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-39.9
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+35.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
24
Yards / Game
32
31
Passing Yards / Game
28
30
Rushing Yards / Game
32
27
EPA
EPA / Play
32
25
EPA / Pass
32
16
EPA / Rush
30
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
28
Interceptions / Game
28
9
Fumbles / Game
22
7
Turnover EPA / Game
3
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
26
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
8
29
Chiefs Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
26
Yards / Game
1
21
Passing Yards / Game
7
14
Rushing Yards / Game
15
32
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
12
EPA / Rush
1
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
4
Interceptions / Game
10
29
Fumbles / Game
12
15
Turnover EPA / Game
29
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
16
4th Down Efficiency
4
24
RZ Efficiency
1
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
6-3-1
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
8-2
ATS
5-4-1
O/U