ARICardinals
2-5
27
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
017
DALCowboys
3-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
14
10
0
27
Cowboys
0
1
3
7
11
Spread
+3.5
Total
UNDER
53.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
340
333
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.15
Passing Yards
221
210
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.25
Rushing Yards
119
123
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-5.92
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-40
-40
Sack EPA
-8.62
-8.24
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-5.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+16.4
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+83.2
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-61.9
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Brissett
Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-61.9
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.9
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
31
Yards / Game
14
31
Passing Yards / Game
15
23
Rushing Yards / Game
24
28
EPA
EPA / Play
24
31
EPA / Pass
15
30
EPA / Rush
25
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
7
26
Interceptions / Game
10
26
Fumbles / Game
28
24
Turnover EPA / Game
11
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
27
5
RZ Efficiency
18
30
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
25
Yards / Game
3
21
Passing Yards / Game
9
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
16
EPA
EPA / Play
3
21
EPA / Pass
8
21
EPA / Rush
8
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
3
Interceptions / Game
22
18
Fumbles / Game
15
5
Turnover EPA / Game
18
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
14
4th Down Efficiency
13
4
RZ Efficiency
13
18
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Cowboys
3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U