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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ cowboys week 9, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-5
27
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
17
DALCowboys
3-4
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
14
10
0
27
Cowboys
0
1
3
7
11

Spread

ARI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
53.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
340
333
Total Plays
65
65
Yards / Play
5.2
5.1
EPA / Play
+0.07
-0.15
Passing Yards
221
210
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
24/39(62%)
Yards / Pass
7.1
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.23
-0.25
Rushing Yards
119
123
Rush Attempts
29
21
Yards / Rush
4.1
5.9
EPA / Rush
+0.00
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
14
14
Rushing 1st downs
8
8
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
54%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
12
Red Zone %
75%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
3
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-5.92
Sacks
5
5
Sack Yards
-40
-40
Sack EPA
-8.62
-8.24
Penalties
2
6
Penalty Yards
--
55
Penalty EPA
--
-5.63

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,473
Home Field
+16.4
Base HFA
+41.9
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-32.6
Surface Adj
+14.6
Time Adj
-7.5
Net QB Adjustment
+83.2
Home QB Adjustment
+21.3
Away QB Adjustment
-61.9
Market Regression
+46.1
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-61.9
Value
Ptile
11/13
-1.0
46
11/20
10.3
97
11/27
-2.6
30
09/08
-2.6
30
09/15
-4.7
18
09/19
-7.3
7
09/29
-8.3
4
10/06
-4.6
19
10/12
2.1
65
10/19
0.1
52
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.1
Team Elo Adj
+21.3
Value
Ptile
10/27
-1.0
42
11/03
-2.2
33
09/04
-0.4
46
09/14
4.7
82
09/21
-1.1
41
09/28
11.2
99
10/05
6.6
91
10/12
6.9
92
10/19
5.0
84
10/26
-4.3
22

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
23
32
Yards / Game
19
30
Passing Yards / Game
5
18
Rushing Yards / Game
29
20

EPA

EPA / Play
26
32
EPA / Pass
18
30
EPA / Rush
26
30

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
11
29
Fumbles / Game
23
28
Turnover EPA / Game
15
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
30
4th Down Efficiency
30
22
RZ Efficiency
22
31
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
4
29
Yards / Game
1
26
Passing Yards / Game
3
27
Rushing Yards / Game
9
25

EPA

EPA / Play
1
28
EPA / Pass
5
27
EPA / Rush
16
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
6
Interceptions / Game
16
17
Fumbles / Game
23
7
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
26
4th Down Efficiency
8
8
RZ Efficiency
17
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/22
-6
L
L
O
12/28
-4
L
W
U
01/05
23
W
W
O
09/07
7
W
W
U
09/14
5
W
L
O
09/21
-1
L
W
U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-1
L
L
O
10/12
-4
L
W
O
10/19
-4
L
W
O
DAL logo

Cowboys

3-6-1
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/29
-34
L
L
O
01/05
-4
L
W
U
09/04
-4
L
W
U
09/14
3
W
L
O
09/21
-17
L
L
U
09/28
0
T
W
O
10/05
15
W
W
O
10/12
-3
L
L
O
10/19
22
W
W
O
10/26
-20
L
L
O