ARICardinals
10-5
25
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
022
DALCowboys
11-4
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
10
9
3
25
Cowboys
0
7
0
15
22
Spread
+6
Total
UNDER
53
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
399
303
Total Plays
73
58
Yards / Play
5.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
272
258
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.37
Rushing Yards
127
45
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.25
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-2.34
-1.32
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
45
88
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-9.62
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+128
Home nfelo
1,673
Away nfelo
1,576
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
-6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
+44.6
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
R. Prescott
Proj. Value
+1.6
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20
EPA
EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
12
18
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21
EPA
EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
20
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
5
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Cowboys
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U