nfelo logo

nfelo

Live
Platform
Kalshi
$10

$10 Bonus

Receive $10 when you sign up with Kalshi prediction market

Affiliate Disclosure: Some of the links and placements on this site may be affiliate links or paid partnerships. This means nfelo may receive compensation when you click these links or sign up for a partner’s service.

Offer Disclosure: Offers are for informational purposes only. Age, location, and other restrictions may apply. nfelo does not validate offer availability. See provider for full terms.

  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ cowboys week 17, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

nfelo logo

nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

Analysis
Research and insights that power the nfelo model
About
How nfelo works

Predictions

  • Games
    Game previews and model projections
  • Confidence Pool
    Weekly confidence pool picks
  • Betting Card
    +EV NFL Sides
  • Model Performance
    Historic nfelo model performance

Teams

  • Power Ratings
    Team Power Ratings
  • EPA Tiers
    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
  • Tendencies
    Pass rates, formations, and play styles
  • Strength of Schedule
    Projected and realized opponent quality
  • Win Totals
    Win total projections and results

QBs

  • QB Rankings
    QB Elo, EPA, Ratings, and Stats
  • Era Adjusted Elo
    QB Elo model adjusted for era

Tools & More

  • Receiving Leaders
    Advanced stats for receivers
  • Head Coaches
    Stats and ATS Records for Coaches
  • HFA Tracker
    Home Field Advantage for every team
  • NFL Odds Calculator
    Calculate and convert betting odds
  • Cover Probability
    Calculate EV for spreads
  • Sportsbook Hold
    Calculate the hold for odds
  • Hedge Calculator
    Calculate strategy optimal hedge size
  • Parlay Payout Calculator
    Calculate parlay payouts
  • QB Passer Rating Calculator
    Calculate passer rating from stats

© 2025 nfelo. All rights reserved.

Entertainment purposes only. The information contained on nfeloapp.com is not intended to be, and shall not be construed as, gambling advice, financial advice, or any other professional advice or service. nfeloapp.com and its owners assume no responsibility for errors or omissions. Please gamble responsibly.

ARI logo
ARICardinals
10-5
25
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0
22
DALCowboys
11-4
DAL logo
TBD
AT&T Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
10
9
3
25
Cowboys
0
7
0
15
22

Spread

ARI logo
+6

Total

UNDER
53

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Total Yards
399
303
Total Plays
73
58
Yards / Play
5.5
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.10
-0.01
Passing Yards
272
258
Comp/Att
27/40(68%)
25/40(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
+0.33
+0.37
Rushing Yards
127
45
Rush Attempts
32
17
Yards / Rush
4.0
2.6
EPA / Rush
-0.16
-0.58
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
1st Downs
23
19
Passing 1st downs
12
15
Rushing 1st downs
9
2
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
44%
27%
3rd Down Conversions
7
3
3rd Down Attempts
16
11
Red Zone %
50%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-4.25
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-14
-1
Sack EPA
-2.34
-1.32
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
45
88
Penalty EPA
-5.80
-9.62

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
DAL logo
DALCowboysFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.0
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market69.3%
Model69.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+122
Home nfelo
1,665
Away nfelo
1,575
Home Field
+42.4
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
-6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-11.2
Home QB Adjustment
-5.2
Away QB Adjustment
+6.0
Market Regression
+52.7
Final Difference
141.4
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+6.0
Value
Ptile
09/26
4.4
81
10/03
5.4
85
10/10
-0.9
46
10/17
2.9
75
10/24
-1.4
43
10/28
-3.3
28
12/05
6.6
90
12/13
1.5
63
12/19
-5.3
18
12/25
7.3
92
R. Prescott headshot

R. Prescott

Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-5.2
Value
Ptile
10/10
2.5
71
10/17
11.6
98
11/07
-2.3
36
11/14
6.6
90
11/21
-10.4
4
11/25
6.0
87
12/02
-1.6
41
12/12
-9.7
4
12/19
-0.9
46
12/26
6.8
91

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Cowboys Defense
Cardinals logo
Cowboys logo

Total

Points / Game
10
8
Yards / Game
9
18
Passing Yards / Game
10
9
Rushing Yards / Game
14
20

EPA

EPA / Play
14
2
EPA / Pass
11
1
EPA / Rush
12
18

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
20
Interceptions / Game
10
1
Fumbles / Game
1
9
Turnover EPA / Game
24
32

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
10
25
RZ Efficiency
14
21
Cowboys Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Cowboys logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
1
16
Yards / Game
2
12
Passing Yards / Game
7
10
Rushing Yards / Game
9
21

EPA

EPA / Play
6
9
EPA / Pass
4
15
EPA / Rush
20
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
15
Interceptions / Game
7
19
Fumbles / Game
12
2
Turnover EPA / Game
20
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
12
9
RZ Efficiency
5
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/24
26
W
W
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/07
14
W
W
O
11/14
-24
L
L
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
11
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
12/19
-18
L
L
U
12/25
-6
L
L
U
DAL logo

Cowboys

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/17
6
W
W
O
10/31
4
W
W
U
11/07
-14
L
L
U
11/14
40
W
W
U
11/21
-10
L
L
U
11/25
-3
L
L
O
12/02
10
W
W
U
12/12
7
W
W
U
12/19
15
W
W
U
12/26
42
W
W
O