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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ eagles week 15, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
11-2
40
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
37°F
4 mph
17
PHIEagles
6-7
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
37°F
4 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
13
4
34
Eagles
3
7
0
7
17

Spread

ARI logo
-3.5

Total

OVER
50.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
493
424
Total Plays
74
63
Yards / Play
6.7
6.7
EPA / Play
+0.21
-0.20
Passing Yards
263
350
Comp/Att
20/33(61%)
28/41(68%)
Yards / Pass
8.0
8.5
EPA / Pass
+0.34
-0.07
Rushing Yards
230
74
Rush Attempts
39
20
Yards / Rush
5.9
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.17
-0.48
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
28
19
Passing 1st downs
15
15
Rushing 1st downs
12
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
--
3rd Down %
57%
50%
3rd Down Conversions
8
6
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
3
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
0
4
Interceptions
0
2
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
--
-23.67
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-11
-11
Sack EPA
-3.46
-7.24
Penalties
1
5
Penalty Yards
--
38
Penalty EPA
--
-4.37

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-59
Home nfelo
1,521
Away nfelo
1,590
Home Field
+38.7
Base HFA
+60.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-21.6
Net QB Adjustment
-29.0
Home QB Adjustment
+0.3
Away QB Adjustment
+29.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+29.2
Value
Ptile
10/04
-0.7
46
10/11
1.0
56
10/18
1.7
63
10/26
2.4
67
11/01
7.1
91
11/15
3.5
75
11/22
3.3
75
11/29
1.2
59
12/06
4.9
81
12/10
4.2
79
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+0.3
Value
Ptile
09/20
-2.9
29
09/27
-4.1
20
10/04
-0.5
47
10/11
3.7
77
10/19
-4.4
18
10/25
-8.0
4
11/08
3.0
73
11/15
-1.3
41
12/06
-1.1
43
12/13
-1.1
44

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
2
28
Yards / Game
2
30
Passing Yards / Game
2
31
Rushing Yards / Game
12
32

EPA

EPA / Play
2
17
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
11
31

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
15
Interceptions / Game
23
10
Fumbles / Game
28
15
Turnover EPA / Game
11
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
26
4th Down Efficiency
6
27
RZ Efficiency
10
31
Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
13
13
Yards / Game
12
7
Passing Yards / Game
14
27
Rushing Yards / Game
15
8

EPA

EPA / Play
21
11
EPA / Pass
22
8
EPA / Rush
16
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
27
Interceptions / Game
26
4
Fumbles / Game
30
8
Turnover EPA / Game
2
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
12
4th Down Efficiency
15
12
RZ Efficiency
22
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-2
L
L
O
10/11
25
W
W
O
10/18
-12
L
L
U
10/26
8
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/15
7
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/29
6
W
L
U
12/06
24
W
W
U
12/10
3
W
L
U
PHI logo

Eagles

5-5
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/04
-3
L
L
U
10/11
22
W
W
O
10/19
20
W
W
U
10/25
-11
L
L
U
11/08
6
W
W
O
11/15
-1
L
L
U
11/22
-28
L
L
O
11/26
-31
L
L
O
12/06
7
W
W
O
12/13
3
W
W
U