ARICardinals
3-12
35
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
9 mph
31
PHIEagles
11-4
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
9 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
15
14
35
Eagles
7
8
0
10
25
Spread
+11.5
Total
OVER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
451
275
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
6.3
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.33
Passing Yards
228
--
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.53
Rushing Yards
221
91
Rush Attempts
40
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
32
17
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
14
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.38
-0.38
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.02
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
25
49
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-4.81
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5
Win Probability
Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+293
Home nfelo
1,597
Away nfelo
1,327
Home Field
+62.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.4
Net QB Adjustment
-39.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+49.5
Market Regression
+13.1
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+1.7
Team Elo Adj
+49.5
J. Hurts
Proj. Value
+2.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11
EPA
EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
2
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
22
Interceptions / Game
15
26
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32
EPA
EPA / Play
7
31
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
6
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
24
19
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
9
23
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Eagles
6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U