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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ eagles week 17, 2023

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-12
35
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
9 mph
31
PHIEagles
11-4
PHI logo
TBD
Lincoln Financial Field
45°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
15
14
35
Eagles
7
8
0
10
25

Spread

ARI logo
+11.5

Total

OVER
48

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Total Yards
451
275
Total Plays
72
47
Yards / Play
6.3
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.31
+0.33
Passing Yards
228
--
Comp/Att
25/31(81%)
19/24(79%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.29
+0.53
Rushing Yards
221
91
Rush Attempts
40
23
Yards / Rush
5.5
4.0
EPA / Rush
+0.23
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
1st Downs
32
17
Passing 1st downs
16
11
Rushing 1st downs
14
5
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
50%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
10
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
2
Red Zone Attempts
6
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.38
-0.38
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
-4
--
Sack EPA
-1.02
--
Penalties
5
4
Penalty Yards
25
49
Penalty EPA
-6.10
-4.81

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
PHI logo
PHIEaglesFavored
Opening
-10.0
Current
-11.5
Model
-11.5

Win Probability

Market82.6%
Model82.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,596
Away nfelo
1,329
Home Field
+62.1
Base HFA
+45.8
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+16.4
Net QB Adjustment
-39.1
Home QB Adjustment
+10.4
Away QB Adjustment
+49.5
Market Regression
+14.2
Final Difference
270.6
Model Spread
-11.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+49.5
Value
Ptile
10/30
2.9
75
11/06
1.6
64
11/27
4.3
82
12/12
-4.4
21
11/12
-1.1
43
11/19
1.7
61
11/26
0.1
49
12/03
-1.9
35
12/17
-0.8
45
12/24
2.8
69
J. Hurts headshot

J. Hurts

Proj. Value
+1.1
Team Elo Adj
+10.4
Value
Ptile
10/15
0.7
54
10/22
3.9
75
10/29
8.6
95
11/05
5.2
83
11/20
-3.3
27
11/26
7.4
92
12/03
4.1
76
12/10
1.4
59
12/18
1.7
61
12/25
4.1
76

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Eagles Defense
Cardinals logo
Eagles logo

Total

Points / Game
24
30
Yards / Game
19
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
32
Rushing Yards / Game
3
11

EPA

EPA / Play
18
30
EPA / Pass
27
29
EPA / Rush
2
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
22
Interceptions / Game
15
26
Fumbles / Game
10
24
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
30
4th Down Efficiency
28
25
RZ Efficiency
5
29
Eagles Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Eagles logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
7
31
Yards / Game
9
25
Passing Yards / Game
10
3
Rushing Yards / Game
9
32

EPA

EPA / Play
7
31
EPA / Pass
10
31
EPA / Rush
6
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
16
Interceptions / Game
24
19
Fumbles / Game
25
31
Turnover EPA / Game
8
4

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
32
4th Down Efficiency
1
8
RZ Efficiency
9
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

2-8
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-17
L
L
U
10/22
-10
L
L
U
10/29
-7
L
W
O
11/05
-27
L
L
U
11/12
2
W
W
O
11/19
-5
L
W
U
11/26
-23
L
L
O
12/03
14
W
W
U
12/17
-16
L
L
O
12/24
-11
L
L
O
PHI logo

Eagles

6-4
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/15
-6
L
L
U
10/22
14
W
W
U
10/29
7
W
P
O
11/05
5
W
W
O
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/26
3
W
W
O
12/03
-23
L
L
O
12/10
-20
L
L
U
12/18
-3
L
L
U
12/25
8
W
L
O