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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ falcons week 15, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-10
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0
40
ATLFalcons
4-9
ATL logo
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
0
7
14
Falcons
4
16
7
7
34

Spread

ATL logo
-9

Total

OVER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Total Yards
253
435
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
3.9
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.11
Passing Yards
193
220
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.07
Rushing Yards
60
215
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
23%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.41
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-50
-11
Sack EPA
-13.36
-3.41
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
50
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-3.46

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ATL logo
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-11.0

Win Probability

Market77.7%
Model81.7%
Spread Pick
ATL logo
Falcons-9.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+16.9%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+294
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,335
Home Field
+99.2
Base HFA
+58.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+20.8
Net QB Adjustment
+51.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.2
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
259.5
Model Spread
-11.0

Quarterbacks

J. Rosen headshot

J. Rosen

Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
Value
Ptile
09/30
0.0
46
10/07
-5.2
17
10/14
-5.4
16
10/18
-11.4
2
10/28
-2.2
32
11/11
-9.4
5
11/18
-5.8
14
11/25
-5.5
15
12/02
-4.6
20
12/09
-4.8
19
M. Ryan headshot

M. Ryan

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Value
Ptile
09/30
8.6
93
10/07
-1.6
35
10/14
8.6
93
10/22
5.1
80
11/04
6.8
89
11/11
6.9
89
11/18
-1.0
39
11/22
2.7
68
12/02
-3.8
23
12/09
2.5
66

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Cardinals logo
Falcons logo

Total

Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25

EPA

EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
30
32

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
8
27
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Falcons logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32

EPA

EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
24
29

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
11
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-3
L
W
U
10/07
10
W
W
O
10/14
-10
L
P
O
10/18
-35
L
L
O
10/28
3
W
W
U
11/11
-12
L
W
U
11/18
-2
L
L
O
11/25
-35
L
L
O
12/02
3
W
W
U
12/09
-14
L
L
U
ATL logo

Falcons

3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/30
-1
L
L
O
10/07
-24
L
L
O
10/14
5
W
W
O
10/22
3
W
L
U
11/04
24
W
W
O
11/11
-12
L
L
U
11/18
-3
L
L
U
11/22
-14
L
L
U
12/02
-10
L
L
U
12/09
-14
L
L
O