ARICardinals
3-10
14
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
040
ATLFalcons
4-9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
0
0
7
14
Falcons
4
16
7
7
34
Spread
-9
Total
OVER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
253
435
Total Plays
65
66
Yards / Play
3.9
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.11
Passing Yards
193
220
Comp/Att
23/36(64%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.4
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.48
+0.07
Rushing Yards
60
215
Rush Attempts
22
27
Yards / Rush
2.7
8.0
EPA / Rush
-0.25
+0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
23
Passing 1st downs
10
14
Rushing 1st downs
6
8
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
23%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
3
5
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
100%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-16.41
--
Sacks
7
2
Sack Yards
-50
-11
Sack EPA
-13.36
-3.41
Penalties
8
6
Penalty Yards
75
50
Penalty EPA
-7.90
-3.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ATLFalconsFavored
Opening
-8.5
Current
-9.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market77.7%
Model81.8%
Spread Pick
Falcons-9.0
Expected Value
+16.9%
Cover Probability
59.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+298
Home nfelo
1,483
Away nfelo
1,335
Home Field
+98.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.1
Time Adj
+20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+51.7
Home QB Adjustment
+9.6
Away QB Adjustment
-42.2
Market Regression
+3.4
Final Difference
261.2
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-42.2
M. Ryan
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
+9.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Falcons Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
25
Yards / Game
32
28
Passing Yards / Game
28
26
Rushing Yards / Game
32
25
EPA
EPA / Play
32
30
EPA / Pass
32
23
EPA / Rush
30
32
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
13
Interceptions / Game
28
11
Fumbles / Game
22
31
Turnover EPA / Game
3
16
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
31
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
8
27
Falcons Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
9
26
Yards / Game
6
21
Passing Yards / Game
3
14
Rushing Yards / Game
27
32
EPA
EPA / Play
5
14
EPA / Pass
6
12
EPA / Rush
24
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
4
Interceptions / Game
3
29
Fumbles / Game
29
15
Turnover EPA / Game
20
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
5
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
11
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Falcons
3-7
SU
2-8
ATS
5-5
O/U