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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ lions week 15, 2021

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
10-3
12
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0
30
DETLions
1-11
DET logo
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
6
6
12
Lions
3
14
7
6
30

Spread

DET logo
+13

Total

UNDER
48

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
Total Yards
398
338
Total Plays
74
62
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
293
212
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.52
Rushing Yards
105
126
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Lions logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.74
-5.55
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-4
Sack EPA
-5.34
-2.01
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
83
49
Penalty EPA
-8.95
-7.74

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market85.2%
Model81.6%
Spread Pick
DET logo
Lions+13.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.0%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-221
Home nfelo
1,326
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+63.3
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
+13.3
Net QB Adjustment
-15.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+5.7
Final Difference
-258.4
Model Spread
+10.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
Value
Ptile
09/12
5.6
86
09/19
8.9
95
09/26
4.4
81
10/03
5.4
85
10/10
-0.9
46
10/17
2.9
75
10/24
-1.4
43
10/28
-3.3
28
12/05
6.6
90
12/13
1.5
63
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Value
Ptile
09/26
-0.9
46
10/03
0.8
59
10/10
-7.6
10
10/17
-3.9
25
10/24
-2.7
33
10/31
-6.0
15
11/14
-7.5
10
11/25
2.6
72
12/05
0.5
56
12/12
-2.2
36

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Cardinals logo
Lions logo

Total

Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
28

EPA

EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
12
21

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Lions logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21

EPA

EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
25
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
31
22

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
17
W
W
O
10/10
7
W
W
U
10/17
23
W
W
O
10/24
26
W
W
U
10/28
-3
L
L
U
11/07
14
W
W
O
11/14
-24
L
L
O
11/21
10
W
W
U
12/05
11
W
W
O
12/13
-7
L
L
O
DET logo

Lions

1-8-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/03
-10
L
L
U
10/10
-2
L
W
U
10/17
-23
L
L
U
10/24
-9
L
W
U
10/31
-38
L
L
O
11/14
0
T
W
U
11/21
-3
L
W
U
11/25
-2
L
P
U
12/05
2
W
W
O
12/12
-28
L
L
O