ARICardinals
10-3
12
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
030
DETLions
1-11
TBD
Ford Field
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
6
6
12
Lions
3
14
7
6
30
Spread
+13
Total
UNDER
48
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
398
338
Total Plays
74
62
Yards / Play
5.4
5.5
EPA / Play
-0.18
+0.10
Passing Yards
293
212
Comp/Att
29/51(57%)
21/26(81%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
8.2
EPA / Pass
-0.27
+0.52
Rushing Yards
105
126
Rush Attempts
21
34
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.7
EPA / Rush
-0.07
-0.31
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
23
22
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
5
Penalty 1st downs
1
4
3rd Down %
47%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
7
6
3rd Down Attempts
15
13
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-7.74
-5.55
Sacks
2
2
Sack Yards
-20
-4
Sack EPA
-5.34
-2.01
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
83
49
Penalty EPA
-8.95
-7.74
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-13.5
Current
-13.0
Model
-10.5
Win Probability
Market85.2%
Model81.3%
Spread Pick
Lions+13.0
Expected Value
+8.0%
Cover Probability
55.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-217
Home nfelo
1,330
Away nfelo
1,595
Home Field
+63.3
Base HFA
+37.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.9
Time Adj
+13.3
Net QB Adjustment
-15.2
Home QB Adjustment
-6.4
Away QB Adjustment
+8.9
Market Regression
+6.7
Final Difference
-255.6
Model Spread
+10.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.9
J. Goff
Proj. Value
+2.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Lions Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
31
Yards / Game
9
29
Passing Yards / Game
10
24
Rushing Yards / Game
14
28
EPA
EPA / Play
14
30
EPA / Pass
11
29
EPA / Rush
12
21
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
19
Interceptions / Game
10
22
Fumbles / Game
1
11
Turnover EPA / Game
24
6
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
29
4th Down Efficiency
10
28
RZ Efficiency
14
30
Lions Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
25
16
Yards / Game
22
12
Passing Yards / Game
25
10
Rushing Yards / Game
18
21
EPA
EPA / Play
23
9
EPA / Pass
21
15
EPA / Rush
25
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
2
15
Interceptions / Game
14
19
Fumbles / Game
20
2
Turnover EPA / Game
8
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
31
13
4th Down Efficiency
21
9
RZ Efficiency
31
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
6-4
O/U
Lions
1-8-1
SU
5-4-1
ATS
3-7
O/U