ARICardinals
2-9
20
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
20 mph
17
GBPackers
4-6
TBD
Lambeau Field
34°F
20 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
10
3
20
Packers
0
10
0
7
17
Spread
+13.5
Total
UNDER
41
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
315
325
Total Plays
57
74
Yards / Play
5.5
4.4
EPA / Play
+0.06
-0.04
Passing Yards
133
227
Comp/Att
11/26(42%)
31/50(62%)
Yards / Pass
5.1
4.5
EPA / Pass
-0.08
+0.05
Rushing Yards
182
98
Rush Attempts
29
23
Yards / Rush
6.3
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.21
-0.09
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
18
22
Passing 1st downs
8
15
Rushing 1st downs
8
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
38%
21%
3rd Down Conversions
5
3
3rd Down Attempts
13
14
Red Zone %
100%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
2
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-16
-6
Sack EPA
-4.12
-1.65
Penalties
7
7
Penalty Yards
49
43
Penalty EPA
-6.36
-3.80
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
GBPackersFavored
Opening
-14.5
Current
-13.5
Model
-13.5
Win Probability
Market86.2%
Model86.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+290
Home nfelo
1,549
Away nfelo
1,374
Home Field
+67.4
Base HFA
+57.2
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+10.2
Net QB Adjustment
+47.8
Home QB Adjustment
+2.5
Away QB Adjustment
-45.3
Market Regression
-26.2
Final Difference
318.3
Model Spread
-13.5
Quarterbacks
J. Rosen
Proj. Value
-5.8
Team Elo Adj
-45.3
A. Rodgers
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+2.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Packers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
22
Yards / Game
32
18
Passing Yards / Game
28
21
Rushing Yards / Game
32
23
EPA
EPA / Play
32
24
EPA / Pass
32
30
EPA / Rush
30
7
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
30
2
Interceptions / Game
28
29
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
3
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
13
4th Down Efficiency
32
28
RZ Efficiency
8
17
Packers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
14
26
Yards / Game
10
21
Passing Yards / Game
4
14
Rushing Yards / Game
22
32
EPA
EPA / Play
14
14
EPA / Pass
16
12
EPA / Rush
2
29
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
4
Interceptions / Game
1
29
Fumbles / Game
13
15
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
22
16
4th Down Efficiency
19
24
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
2-8
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Packers
3-6-1
SU
4-5-1
ATS
5-5
O/U