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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ panthers week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
2-1
21
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
68°F
8 mph
31
CARPanthers
1-2
CAR logo
TBD
Bank of America Stadium
68°F
8 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
7
7
21
Panthers
14
7
7
3
31

Spread

CAR logo
+3

Total

UNDER
52.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
Total Yards
262
444
Total Plays
55
72
Yards / Play
4.8
6.2
EPA / Play
+0.08
+0.21
Passing Yards
133
--
Comp/Att
24/31(77%)
26/37(70%)
Yards / Pass
4.3
--
EPA / Pass
+0.04
+0.34
Rushing Yards
129
168
Rush Attempts
23
35
Yards / Rush
5.6
4.8
EPA / Rush
+0.14
+0.16
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
1st Downs
21
30
Passing 1st downs
11
17
Rushing 1st downs
6
11
Penalty 1st downs
4
2
3rd Down %
33%
64%
3rd Down Conversions
3
7
3rd Down Attempts
9
11
Red Zone %
100%
80%
Red Zone Conversions
3
4
Red Zone Attempts
3
5
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo
Turnovers
1
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-3.93
-3.13
Sacks
1
--
Sack Yards
--
--
Sack EPA
-3.93
--
Penalties
5
10
Penalty Yards
29
72
Penalty EPA
-4.44
-8.24

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-3.0
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market59.7%
Model63.0%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals-3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+4.4%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-131
Home nfelo
1,371
Away nfelo
1,507
Home Field
+8.5
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+2.3
Net QB Adjustment
-3.3
Home QB Adjustment
+13.6
Away QB Adjustment
+16.9
Market Regression
+16.8
Final Difference
-92.3
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

K. Murray headshot

K. Murray

Proj. Value
+0.9
Team Elo Adj
+16.9
Value
Ptile
11/10
3.7
76
11/17
6.3
88
12/01
-7.2
11
12/08
-7.4
10
12/15
4.5
81
12/22
-1.4
44
12/29
1.4
64
09/13
5.7
81
09/20
7.1
88
09/27
0.2
48
T. Bridgewater headshot

T. Bridgewater

Proj. Value
-1.7
Team Elo Adj
+13.6
Value
Ptile
01/10
-3.8
23
12/30
-5.6
15
09/22
2.8
71
09/29
-6.3
15
10/06
7.5
91
10/13
-1.0
47
10/20
3.9
79
09/13
2.3
62
09/20
-2.1
29
09/27
2.0
58

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Panthers Defense
Cardinals logo
Panthers logo

Total

Points / Game
14
18
Yards / Game
6
16
Passing Yards / Game
10
14
Rushing Yards / Game
6
18

EPA

EPA / Play
15
25
EPA / Pass
22
21
EPA / Rush
3
25

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
16
Interceptions / Game
17
30
Fumbles / Game
23
1
Turnover EPA / Game
8
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
31
4th Down Efficiency
5
21
RZ Efficiency
9
21
Panthers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Panthers logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
21
13
Passing Yards / Game
20
11
Rushing Yards / Game
20
21

EPA

EPA / Play
16
9
EPA / Pass
21
10
EPA / Rush
13
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
9
22
Interceptions / Game
27
20
Fumbles / Game
12
18
Turnover EPA / Game
21
19

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
24
10
4th Down Efficiency
20
26
RZ Efficiency
28
4

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-6
SU
5-3-2
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/10
-3
L
W
O
11/17
-10
L
P
O
12/01
-27
L
L
U
12/08
-6
L
L
U
12/15
14
W
W
O
12/22
14
W
W
U
12/29
-7
L
P
O
09/13
4
W
W
U
09/20
15
W
W
U
09/27
-3
L
L
U
CAR logo

Panthers

1-9
SU
2-7-1
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-26
L
L
U
11/24
-3
L
W
O
12/01
-8
L
L
O
12/08
-20
L
L
O
12/15
-6
L
P
O
12/22
-32
L
L
U
12/29
-32
L
L
O
09/13
-4
L
L
O
09/20
-14
L
L
O
09/27
5
W
W
U