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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ rams week 7, 2017

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-3
0
TBD
Twickenham Stadium
54°F
10 mph
33
LARRams
4-2
LAR logo
TBD
Twickenham Stadium
54°F
10 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
0
0
0
Rams
3
20
3
7
33

Spread

LAR logo
-3

Total

UNDER
45.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
196
425
Total Plays
47
78
Yards / Play
4.2
5.4
EPA / Play
-0.50
+0.19
Passing Yards
171
228
Comp/Att
15/32(47%)
22/37(59%)
Yards / Pass
5.3
6.2
EPA / Pass
-0.47
+0.10
Rushing Yards
25
197
Rush Attempts
12
40
Yards / Rush
2.1
4.9
EPA / Rush
-0.24
+0.22
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
8
14
Rushing 1st downs
1
11
Penalty 1st downs
1
3
3rd Down %
25%
68%
3rd Down Conversions
3
13
3rd Down Attempts
12
19
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
6
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-8.30
-6.56
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-17
-7
Sack EPA
-5.48
-0.66
Penalties
10
6
Penalty Yards
65
45
Penalty EPA
-6.68
-4.28

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAR logo
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-3.0
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market59.3%
Model55.0%
Spread Pick
ARI logo
Cardinals+3.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+3.6%
Cover Probability
50.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+2
Home nfelo
1,495
Away nfelo
1,470
Home Field
-36.4
Base HFA
--
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-10.3
Net QB Adjustment
+13.7
Home QB Adjustment
+10.7
Away QB Adjustment
-3.0
Market Regression
-7.9
Final Difference
35.1
Model Spread
-2.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-3.0
Value
Ptile
12/11
-7.9
6
12/18
5.5
84
12/24
2.5
68
01/01
-0.2
46
09/10
-5.9
16
09/17
-3.5
27
09/25
-1.0
44
10/01
-2.7
34
10/08
1.3
62
10/15
2.3
69
J. Goff headshot

J. Goff

Proj. Value
+1.5
Team Elo Adj
+10.7
Value
Ptile
12/11
-6.0
12
12/15
-7.3
7
12/24
-12.7
1
01/01
-10.6
2
09/10
4.0
80
09/17
-3.7
26
09/21
8.5
94
10/01
1.7
65
10/08
-5.2
19
10/15
-3.4
28

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
24
12
Yards / Game
23
17
Passing Yards / Game
8
11
Rushing Yards / Game
30
27

EPA

EPA / Play
30
7
EPA / Pass
29
5
EPA / Rush
31
26

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
16
24
Interceptions / Game
28
7
Fumbles / Game
10
3
Turnover EPA / Game
5
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
25
14
4th Down Efficiency
20
27
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
3
18
Yards / Game
8
4
Passing Yards / Game
13
24
Rushing Yards / Game
7
6

EPA

EPA / Play
6
6
EPA / Pass
8
9
EPA / Rush
7
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
29
3
Interceptions / Game
1
12
Fumbles / Game
30
23
Turnover EPA / Game
21
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
6
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
15
23

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

5-5
SU
3-7
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-3
L
L
O
12/18
-7
L
L
O
12/24
3
W
W
O
01/01
38
W
W
O
09/10
-12
L
L
O
09/17
3
W
L
U
09/25
-11
L
L
U
10/01
3
W
L
U
10/08
-27
L
L
U
10/15
5
W
W
O
LAR logo

Rams

4-6
SU
3-7
ATS
8-2
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
12/11
-28
L
L
O
12/15
-21
L
L
U
12/24
-1
L
L
O
01/01
-38
L
L
O
09/10
37
W
W
O
09/17
-7
L
L
O
09/21
2
W
L
O
10/01
5
W
W
O
10/08
-6
L
L
U
10/15
10
W
W
O