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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ rams week 13, 2015

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
9-2
27
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0
3
LARRams
4-7
LAR logo
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
14
3
27
Rams
0
0
3
0
3

Spread

ARI logo
-3.5

Total

UNDER
43

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Total Yards
524
212
Total Plays
79
50
Yards / Play
6.6
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.36
Passing Yards
349
--
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.42
Rushing Yards
175
66
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
1st Downs
29
9
Passing 1st downs
18
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
44%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Rams logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.22
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.88
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
104
Penalty EPA
--
-6.34

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
ARI logo
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5

Win Probability

Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-47
Home nfelo
1,501
Away nfelo
1,572
Home Field
+66.0
Base HFA
+61.3
Divisional Adj
-27.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.4
Time Adj
+11.0
Net QB Adjustment
-41.4
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
+1.1
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
Value
Ptile
09/20
2.9
72
09/27
2.7
70
10/04
-0.7
46
10/11
1.0
56
10/18
1.7
63
10/26
2.4
67
11/01
7.1
91
11/15
3.5
75
11/22
3.3
75
11/29
1.2
59
N. Foles headshot

N. Foles

Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
5.3
83
09/20
-3.6
24
09/27
-4.3
19
10/04
2.6
69
10/11
-14.0
0
10/25
-3.9
22
11/01
-0.7
46
11/08
-3.7
24
11/15
-6.8
8
11/29
-5.2
14

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Cardinals logo
Rams logo

Total

Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21

EPA

EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
5

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Rams logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8

EPA

EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
24
4

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
21
15

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
25
W
W
O
09/27
40
W
W
O
10/04
-2
L
L
O
10/11
25
W
W
O
10/18
-12
L
L
U
10/26
8
W
L
U
11/01
14
W
W
O
11/15
7
W
W
O
11/22
3
W
L
O
11/29
6
W
L
U
LAR logo

Rams

3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/20
-14
L
L
U
09/27
-6
L
L
U
10/04
2
W
W
O
10/11
-14
L
L
U
10/25
18
W
W
U
11/01
21
W
W
U
11/08
-3
L
L
U
11/15
-24
L
L
O
11/22
-3
L
P
U
11/29
-24
L
L
U