ARICardinals
9-2
27
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
03
LARRams
4-7
TBD
Edward Jones Dome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
3
14
3
27
Rams
0
0
3
0
3
Spread
-3.5
Total
UNDER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
524
212
Total Plays
79
50
Yards / Play
6.6
4.2
EPA / Play
+0.15
-0.36
Passing Yards
349
--
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
15/35(43%)
Yards / Pass
8.5
--
EPA / Pass
+0.37
-0.42
Rushing Yards
175
66
Rush Attempts
36
15
Yards / Rush
4.9
4.4
EPA / Rush
-0.03
-0.26
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
9
Passing 1st downs
18
6
Rushing 1st downs
8
3
Penalty 1st downs
3
--
3rd Down %
44%
8%
3rd Down Conversions
7
1
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
50%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
4
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-3.22
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.88
--
Penalties
3
7
Penalty Yards
--
104
Penalty EPA
--
-6.34
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
ARICardinalsFavored
Opening
-5.5
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.9%
Model62.9%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-50
Home nfelo
1,502
Away nfelo
1,577
Home Field
+65.3
Base HFA
+60.6
Divisional Adj
-27.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+21.2
Time Adj
+10.8
Net QB Adjustment
-41.4
Home QB Adjustment
-15.7
Away QB Adjustment
+25.6
Market Regression
+2.9
Final Difference
-91.7
Model Spread
+3.5
Quarterbacks
C. Palmer
Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
+25.6
N. Foles
Proj. Value
-2.6
Team Elo Adj
-15.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
12
Yards / Game
2
23
Passing Yards / Game
2
18
Rushing Yards / Game
12
21
EPA
EPA / Play
2
6
EPA / Pass
3
10
EPA / Rush
11
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
10
32
Interceptions / Game
23
17
Fumbles / Game
28
5
Turnover EPA / Game
11
25
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
6
4th Down Efficiency
6
3
RZ Efficiency
10
2
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
29
13
Yards / Game
32
7
Passing Yards / Game
32
27
Rushing Yards / Game
7
8
EPA
EPA / Play
32
11
EPA / Pass
32
8
EPA / Rush
24
4
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
27
Interceptions / Game
10
4
Fumbles / Game
15
8
Turnover EPA / Game
21
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
12
4th Down Efficiency
31
12
RZ Efficiency
21
15
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
8-2
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Rams
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U