ARICardinals
11-6
11
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
034
LARRams
12-5
TBD
SoFi Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
0
8
3
11
Rams
7
8
7
6
28
Spread
-4
Total
UNDER
49.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
185
375
Total Plays
54
57
Yards / Play
3.4
6.6
EPA / Play
-0.44
+0.09
Passing Yards
122
235
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
14/18(78%)
Yards / Pass
3.6
13.1
EPA / Pass
-0.65
+0.82
Rushing Yards
61
140
Rush Attempts
18
38
Yards / Rush
3.4
3.7
EPA / Rush
+0.03
-0.24
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
14
16
Passing 1st downs
7
11
Rushing 1st downs
6
4
Penalty 1st downs
1
1
3rd Down %
0%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
--
6
3rd Down Attempts
9
13
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-10.46
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-15
-7
Sack EPA
-3.33
-2.32
Penalties
7
6
Penalty Yards
50
48
Penalty EPA
-5.35
-7.64
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LARRamsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+106
Home nfelo
1,644
Away nfelo
1,571
Home Field
+39.0
Base HFA
+36.2
Divisional Adj
-16.3
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+12.6
Time Adj
+6.5
Net QB Adjustment
-14.5
Home QB Adjustment
-6.3
Away QB Adjustment
+8.2
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+8.2
J. Stafford
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-6.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Rams Defense
Total
Points / Game
10
9
Yards / Game
9
13
Passing Yards / Game
10
27
Rushing Yards / Game
14
5
EPA
EPA / Play
14
6
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
12
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
19
28
Interceptions / Game
10
5
Fumbles / Game
1
28
Turnover EPA / Game
24
17
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
7
4th Down Efficiency
10
14
RZ Efficiency
14
9
Rams Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
16
Yards / Game
7
12
Passing Yards / Game
1
10
Rushing Yards / Game
27
21
EPA
EPA / Play
9
9
EPA / Pass
2
15
EPA / Rush
31
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
15
Interceptions / Game
26
19
Fumbles / Game
11
2
Turnover EPA / Game
14
29
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
13
4th Down Efficiency
17
9
RZ Efficiency
17
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
4-6
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U
Rams
6-4
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U