ARICardinals
3-3
9
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
031
NOSaints
6-1
TBD
Mercedes-Benz Superdome
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
3
3
3
0
9
Saints
0
10
7
14
31
Spread
-12.5
Total
UNDER
47.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
237
510
Total Plays
49
72
Yards / Play
4.8
7.1
EPA / Play
-0.34
+0.08
Passing Yards
197
--
Comp/Att
19/34(56%)
34/43(79%)
Yards / Pass
5.8
--
EPA / Pass
-0.31
+0.32
Rushing Yards
40
137
Rush Attempts
11
29
Yards / Rush
3.6
4.7
EPA / Rush
-0.49
-0.08
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
10
28
Passing 1st downs
8
20
Rushing 1st downs
2
8
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
17%
58%
3rd Down Conversions
2
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
12
Red Zone %
0%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
--
4
Red Zone Attempts
2
6
Negative Plays
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
--
-4.03
Sacks
4
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-5.64
--
Penalties
5
2
Penalty Yards
35
--
Penalty EPA
-4.31
--
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
NOSaintsFavored
Opening
-10.5
Current
-12.5
Model
-12.5
Win Probability
Market84.1%
Model84.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+325
Home nfelo
1,635
Away nfelo
1,372
Home Field
+79.4
Base HFA
+52.0
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+18.1
Time Adj
+9.3
Net QB Adjustment
-18.5
Home QB Adjustment
+0.4
Away QB Adjustment
+18.9
Market Regression
+5.2
Final Difference
289.4
Model Spread
-12.5
Quarterbacks
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+18.9
D. Brees
Proj. Value
+1.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Cardinals Offense vs Saints Defense
Total
Points / Game
16
14
Yards / Game
22
10
Passing Yards / Game
22
20
Rushing Yards / Game
10
4
EPA
EPA / Play
17
8
EPA / Pass
19
13
EPA / Rush
5
5
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
29
Interceptions / Game
16
16
Fumbles / Game
4
9
Turnover EPA / Game
25
20
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
24
8
4th Down Efficiency
2
11
RZ Efficiency
30
24
Saints Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
5
28
Yards / Game
9
32
Passing Yards / Game
29
32
Rushing Yards / Game
16
23
EPA
EPA / Play
5
28
EPA / Pass
4
30
EPA / Rush
13
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
6
Interceptions / Game
4
30
Fumbles / Game
1
14
Turnover EPA / Game
32
7
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
11
30
4th Down Efficiency
24
1
RZ Efficiency
14
22
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Cardinals
3-6-1
SU
6-4
ATS
6-4
O/U
Saints
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
5-5
O/U