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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ texans week 15, 2025

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
3-10
20
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0
40
HOUTexans
8-5
HOU logo
TBD
NRG Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
7
7
6
20
Texans
17
6
7
10
40

Spread

HOU logo
-10.5

Total

OVER
42

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Texans logo
Total Yards
307
399
Total Plays
64
63
Yards / Play
4.8
6.3
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.32
Passing Yards
235
256
Comp/Att
27/41(66%)
22/29(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.7
8.8
EPA / Pass
-0.04
+0.52
Rushing Yards
72
143
Rush Attempts
21
33
Yards / Rush
3.4
4.3
EPA / Rush
+0.12
-0.00
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Texans logo
1st Downs
22
23
Passing 1st downs
14
13
Rushing 1st downs
6
9
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
42%
54%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
12
13
Red Zone %
67%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
3
Red Zone Attempts
3
6
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Texans logo
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-10.55
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-14
-4
Sack EPA
-4.00
-1.18
Penalties
2
5
Penalty Yards
34
40
Penalty EPA
-3.01
-6.50

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
HOU logo
HOUTexansFavored
Opening
-9.5
Current
-10.5
Model
-10.5

Win Probability

Market80.6%
Model80.6%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+237
Home nfelo
1,566
Away nfelo
1,426
Home Field
+67.9
Base HFA
+44.4
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.5
Time Adj
+8.0
Net QB Adjustment
+30.0
Home QB Adjustment
-4.2
Away QB Adjustment
-34.2
Market Regression
+22.4
Final Difference
247.4
Model Spread
-10.5

Quarterbacks

J. Brissett headshot

J. Brissett

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-34.2
Value
Ptile
09/29
-8.3
4
10/06
-4.6
19
10/12
2.1
65
10/19
0.1
52
11/03
-0.2
49
11/09
-1.6
39
11/16
9.7
97
11/23
-1.1
42
11/30
2.6
69
12/07
-0.5
45
C. Stroud headshot

C. Stroud

Proj. Value
-0.5
Team Elo Adj
-4.2
Value
Ptile
09/07
-3.4
27
09/15
-3.1
28
09/21
-3.6
26
09/28
3.0
73
10/05
9.5
97
10/20
-5.0
17
10/26
7.4
93
11/02
-4.3
21
11/30
-2.9
30
12/07
-4.1
23

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Texans Defense
Cardinals logo
Texans logo

Total

Points / Game
23
1
Yards / Game
19
1
Passing Yards / Game
5
14
Rushing Yards / Game
29
4

EPA

EPA / Play
26
1
EPA / Pass
18
1
EPA / Rush
26
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
5
22
Interceptions / Game
11
4
Fumbles / Game
23
16
Turnover EPA / Game
15
29

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
4
4th Down Efficiency
30
7
RZ Efficiency
22
17
Texans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Texans logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
16
29
Yards / Game
20
26
Passing Yards / Game
24
27
Rushing Yards / Game
24
25

EPA

EPA / Play
23
28
EPA / Pass
14
27
EPA / Rush
30
20

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
6
Interceptions / Game
9
17
Fumbles / Game
3
7
Turnover EPA / Game
31
11

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
16
8
RZ Efficiency
30
27

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

1-9
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/25
-3
L
L
U
10/05
-1
L
L
O
10/12
-4
L
W
O
10/19
-4
L
W
O
11/03
10
W
W
U
11/09
-22
L
L
O
11/16
-19
L
L
O
11/23
-3
L
L
O
11/30
-3
L
W
U
12/07
-28
L
L
O
HOU logo

Texans

8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/28
26
W
W
U
10/05
34
W
W
O
10/20
-8
L
L
O
10/26
11
W
W
U
11/02
-3
L
L
U
11/09
7
W
W
O
11/16
3
W
L
U
11/20
4
W
W
U
11/30
4
W
W
U
12/07
10
W
W
U