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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ titans week 12, 2009

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
7-3
17
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
9 mph
20
TENTitans
4-6
TEN logo
TBD
Nissan Stadium
59°F
9 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
0
3
7
7
17
Titans
3
3
7
7
20

Spread

ARI logo
+3.5

Total

UNDER
44.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Titans logo
Total Yards
292
532
Total Plays
52
70
Yards / Play
5.6
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.27
+0.20
Passing Yards
217
369
Comp/Att
21/31(68%)
27/43(63%)
Yards / Pass
7.0
8.6
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.19
Rushing Yards
75
163
Rush Attempts
20
23
Yards / Rush
3.8
7.1
EPA / Rush
-0.02
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Titans logo
1st Downs
15
20
Passing 1st downs
10
16
Rushing 1st downs
5
4
Penalty 1st downs
--
--
3rd Down %
42%
38%
3rd Down Conversions
5
6
3rd Down Attempts
12
16
Red Zone %
100%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
1
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
3
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Titans logo
Turnovers
0
1
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
--
-1.89
Sacks
1
4
Sack Yards
-3
-18
Sack EPA
-1.45
-6.79
Penalties
4
6
Penalty Yards
25
--
Penalty EPA
-2.85
--

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TEN logo
TENTitansFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-3.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market62.5%
Model66.4%
Spread Pick
TEN logo
Titans-3.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+2.0%
Cover Probability
53.4%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+151
Home nfelo
1,541
Away nfelo
1,573
Home Field
+51.3
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-11.2
Net QB Adjustment
+132.7
Home QB Adjustment
+12.5
Away QB Adjustment
-120.2
Market Regression
+42.0
Final Difference
118.6
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

M. Leinart headshot

M. Leinart

Proj. Value
-1.4
Team Elo Adj
-120.2
Value
Ptile
11/26
3.4
74
12/03
1.9
63
12/10
3.6
75
12/17
-4.5
21
12/24
0.5
54
09/10
-4.7
21
09/16
3.3
74
09/23
-4.3
23
09/30
-2.6
33
10/07
-5.4
16
V. Young headshot

V. Young

Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
+12.5
Value
Ptile
12/09
-4.8
19
12/16
4.6
80
12/23
-5.9
13
12/30
1.9
64
01/06
-4.3
23
09/07
-5.4
13
11/01
1.3
58
11/08
1.2
58
11/15
4.2
77
11/23
3.3
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Titans Defense
Cardinals logo
Titans logo

Total

Points / Game
9
28
Yards / Game
12
27
Passing Yards / Game
8
25
Rushing Yards / Game
27
11

EPA

EPA / Play
17
27
EPA / Pass
13
26
EPA / Rush
19
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
26
32
Interceptions / Game
17
7
Fumbles / Game
31
28
Turnover EPA / Game
5
16

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
22
26
4th Down Efficiency
13
31
RZ Efficiency
1
27
Titans Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Titans logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
15
20
Yards / Game
13
24
Passing Yards / Game
31
20
Rushing Yards / Game
2
16

EPA

EPA / Play
13
15
EPA / Pass
17
15
EPA / Rush
2
16

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
13
28
Interceptions / Game
14
8
Fumbles / Game
29
26
Turnover EPA / Game
22
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
12
11
4th Down Efficiency
12
19
RZ Efficiency
9
18

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

7-3
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
-4
L
L
U
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
-21
L
L
U
10/11
7
W
W
U
10/18
24
W
W
U
10/25
7
W
W
U
11/01
-13
L
L
O
11/08
20
W
W
O
11/15
11
W
W
O
11/22
8
W
L
U
TEN logo

Titans

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
6-4
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/10
-3
L
W
U
09/20
-3
L
L
O
09/27
-7
L
L
O
10/04
-20
L
L
O
10/11
-22
L
L
U
10/18
-59
L
L
O
11/01
17
W
W
U
11/08
7
W
W
O
11/15
24
W
W
O
11/23
3
W
W
U