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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. cardinals @ vikings week 11, 2016

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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ARI logo
ARICardinals
4-4
24
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0
30
MINVikings
5-4
MIN logo
TBD
U.S. Bank Stadium
70°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Cardinals
7
10
0
7
24
Vikings
7
7
10
0
24

Spread

MIN logo
-2

Total

OVER
39.5

Game Statistics

General
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Total Yards
290
217
Total Plays
70
54
Yards / Play
4.1
4.0
EPA / Play
-0.17
-0.14
Passing Yards
155
145
Comp/Att
20/38(53%)
20/28(71%)
Yards / Pass
4.1
5.2
EPA / Pass
-0.48
-0.07
Rushing Yards
135
72
Rush Attempts
28
24
Yards / Rush
4.8
3.0
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.37
Downs & Conversions
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
1st Downs
24
16
Passing 1st downs
12
7
Rushing 1st downs
8
4
Penalty 1st downs
4
5
3rd Down %
31%
46%
3rd Down Conversions
4
6
3rd Down Attempts
13
13
Red Zone %
50%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
4
Negative Plays
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-13.02
-4.57
Sacks
4
2
Sack Yards
-43
-24
Sack EPA
-9.29
-5.28
Penalties
8
10
Penalty Yards
96
73
Penalty EPA
-12.15
-10.10

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
MIN logo
MINVikingsFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.0
Model
-2.0

Win Probability

Market54.2%
Model54.2%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+61
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,589
Home Field
+89.0
Base HFA
+58.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+20.3
Time Adj
+10.4
Net QB Adjustment
+29.4
Home QB Adjustment
+29.1
Away QB Adjustment
-0.3
Market Regression
+0.3
Final Difference
29.3
Model Spread
-2.0

Quarterbacks

C. Palmer headshot

C. Palmer

Proj. Value
-1.2
Team Elo Adj
-0.3
Value
Ptile
01/16
1.5
62
01/24
-9.2
3
09/11
1.8
63
09/18
4.1
79
09/25
-13.2
0
10/02
-2.0
34
10/17
1.1
57
10/23
0.2
50
10/30
1.0
56
11/13
0.2
50
S. Bradford headshot

S. Bradford

Proj. Value
-1.1
Team Elo Adj
+29.1
Value
Ptile
12/26
1.1
57
01/03
3.7
78
09/18
1.9
64
09/25
-1.1
40
10/03
3.4
75
10/09
4.7
82
10/23
-7.2
7
10/31
-4.3
18
11/06
2.6
69
11/13
3.1
74

Team Matchup Ranks

Cardinals Offense vs Vikings Defense
Cardinals logo
Vikings logo

Total

Points / Game
6
5
Yards / Game
8
3
Passing Yards / Game
5
4
Rushing Yards / Game
17
19

EPA

EPA / Play
20
4
EPA / Pass
21
2
EPA / Rush
20
7

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
32
10
Interceptions / Game
26
14
Fumbles / Game
29
2
Turnover EPA / Game
7
24

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
14
15
4th Down Efficiency
14
2
RZ Efficiency
5
13
Vikings Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Vikings logo
Cardinals logo

Total

Points / Game
23
14
Yards / Game
28
2
Passing Yards / Game
30
18
Rushing Yards / Game
32
9

EPA

EPA / Play
23
2
EPA / Pass
14
3
EPA / Rush
32
6

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
28
7
Interceptions / Game
2
14
Fumbles / Game
22
5
Turnover EPA / Game
29
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
17
14
4th Down Efficiency
22
13
RZ Efficiency
29
17

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

ARI logo

Cardinals

4-5-1
SU
3-7
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/24
-34
L
L
O
09/11
-2
L
L
U
09/18
33
W
W
U
09/25
-15
L
L
O
10/02
-4
L
L
U
10/06
12
W
W
O
10/17
25
W
W
U
10/23
0
T
L
U
10/30
-10
L
L
O
11/13
3
W
L
U
MIN logo

Vikings

5-5
SU
6-4
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
01/10
-1
L
W
U
09/11
9
W
W
O
09/18
3
W
W
U
09/25
12
W
W
U
10/03
14
W
W
U
10/09
18
W
W
O
10/23
-11
L
L
U
10/31
-10
L
L
U
11/06
-6
L
L
U
11/13
-6
L
L
O