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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ bills week 12, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

Advanced NFL analytics platform powered by the nflfastR dataset and custom open source models.

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Research and insights that power the nfelo model
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    +EV NFL Sides
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    Historic nfelo model performance

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    Team Power Ratings
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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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    Projected and realized opponent quality
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    Win total projections and results

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LAC logo
LACChargers
3-7
17
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
7 mph
27
BUFBills
7-3
BUF logo
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
7 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
0
8
3
17
Bills
7
10
7
3
27

Spread

BUF logo
-4.5

Total

UNDER
51

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Bills logo
Total Yards
369
332
Total Plays
80
58
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
293
160
Comp/Att
31/53(58%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.09
Rushing Yards
76
172
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Bills logo
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
19%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Bills logo
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.65
-12.93
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-17
Sack EPA
-4.71
-5.12
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
91
85
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-3.93

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
BUF logo
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5

Win Probability

Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+11.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+21.7
Away QB Adjustment
+29.9
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.9
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
10/04
4.8
78
10/12
3.0
67
10/25
11.5
98
11/01
2.2
61
11/08
3.8
72
11/15
-1.0
37
11/22
6.8
88
J. Allen headshot

J. Allen

Proj. Value
+3.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Value
Ptile
09/13
8.7
94
09/20
10.7
97
09/27
6.3
86
10/04
5.4
79
10/13
-0.4
43
10/19
-0.7
41
10/25
4.1
74
11/01
-1.6
32
11/08
6.2
85
11/15
2.1
59

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Chargers logo
Bills logo

Total

Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20

EPA

EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
31
24

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Bills logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17

EPA

EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
16
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
12
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
10/04
-7
L
W
O
10/12
-3
L
W
O
10/25
10
W
W
O
11/01
-1
L
L
O
11/08
-5
L
L
O
11/15
-8
L
L
O
11/22
6
W
L
O
BUF logo

Bills

7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
09/13
10
W
W
O
09/20
3
W
L
O
09/27
3
W
W
O
10/04
7
W
W
P
10/13
-26
L
L
O
10/19
-9
L
L
U
10/25
8
W
L
U
11/01
3
W
L
O
11/08
10
W
W
O
11/15
-2
L
W
O