LACChargers
3-7
17
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
7 mph
27
BUFBills
7-3
TBD
New Era Field
48°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
6
0
8
3
17
Bills
7
10
7
3
27
Spread
-4.5
Total
UNDER
51
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
369
332
Total Plays
80
58
Yards / Play
4.6
5.7
EPA / Play
-0.06
+0.09
Passing Yards
293
160
Comp/Att
31/53(58%)
19/25(76%)
Yards / Pass
5.5
6.4
EPA / Pass
+0.12
+0.09
Rushing Yards
76
172
Rush Attempts
24
30
Yards / Rush
3.2
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.48
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
24
23
Passing 1st downs
16
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
11
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
19%
44%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
9
Red Zone %
50%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
2
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
3
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
2
Turnover EPA
-2.65
-12.93
Sacks
3
3
Sack Yards
-25
-17
Sack EPA
-4.71
-5.12
Penalties
5
9
Penalty Yards
91
85
Penalty EPA
-8.21
-3.93
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
BUFBillsFavored
Opening
-5.0
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.5
Win Probability
Market66.1%
Model66.1%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+110
Home nfelo
1,532
Away nfelo
1,425
Home Field
+11.4
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
+1.8
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
-8.2
Home QB Adjustment
+21.7
Away QB Adjustment
+29.9
Market Regression
-7.8
Final Difference
116.0
Model Spread
-4.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+1.0
Team Elo Adj
+29.9
J. Allen
Proj. Value
+4.8
Team Elo Adj
+21.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Bills Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
14
Yards / Game
10
18
Passing Yards / Game
2
13
Rushing Yards / Game
18
20
EPA
EPA / Play
23
16
EPA / Pass
10
13
EPA / Rush
31
24
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
21
Interceptions / Game
7
12
Fumbles / Game
8
5
Turnover EPA / Game
30
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
19
4th Down Efficiency
25
16
RZ Efficiency
21
17
Bills Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
3
23
Yards / Game
5
10
Passing Yards / Game
6
10
Rushing Yards / Game
24
17
EPA
EPA / Play
4
13
EPA / Pass
3
19
EPA / Rush
16
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
18
18
Interceptions / Game
9
16
Fumbles / Game
22
24
Turnover EPA / Game
24
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
4
22
4th Down Efficiency
1
26
RZ Efficiency
12
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
7-3
O/U
Bills
7-3
SU
5-5
ATS
7-2-1
O/U