LACChargers
4-7
20
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
33°F
7 mph
23
DENBroncos
3-8
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
33°F
7 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
10
0
10
20
Broncos
14
3
0
6
23
Spread
+4.5
Total
OVER
39
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
359
218
Total Plays
61
53
Yards / Play
5.9
4.1
EPA / Play
-0.03
+0.03
Passing Yards
244
--
Comp/Att
20/29(69%)
18/28(64%)
Yards / Pass
8.4
--
EPA / Pass
+0.14
-0.09
Rushing Yards
115
84
Rush Attempts
29
25
Yards / Rush
4.0
3.4
EPA / Rush
-0.12
-0.33
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
13
Passing 1st downs
11
8
Rushing 1st downs
5
3
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
33%
47%
3rd Down Conversions
5
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
15
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
0
1
Turnover EPA
-5.11
+1.35
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-21
--
Sack EPA
-8.08
--
Penalties
7
3
Penalty Yards
82
25
Penalty EPA
-8.46
-4.42
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-4.5
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market66.6%
Model64.4%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-38
Home nfelo
1,472
Away nfelo
1,502
Home Field
-11.2
Base HFA
+48.9
Divisional Adj
-22.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
-38.0
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+3.0
Home QB Adjustment
-15.9
Away QB Adjustment
-18.9
Market Regression
-88.6
Final Difference
-103.1
Model Spread
+4.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-18.9
P. Lock
Proj. Value
-0.9
Team Elo Adj
-15.9
No recent game data available
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
8
Yards / Game
10
12
Passing Yards / Game
3
6
Rushing Yards / Game
28
16
EPA
EPA / Play
11
15
EPA / Pass
11
14
EPA / Rush
25
19
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
17
Interceptions / Game
29
25
Fumbles / Game
18
28
Turnover EPA / Game
4
4
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
11
4th Down Efficiency
9
15
RZ Efficiency
22
1
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
28
13
Yards / Game
28
6
Passing Yards / Game
31
3
Rushing Yards / Game
20
18
EPA
EPA / Play
24
22
EPA / Pass
25
22
EPA / Rush
18
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
15
21
Interceptions / Game
12
21
Fumbles / Game
4
30
Turnover EPA / Game
26
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
30
29
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
27
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
2-8
O/U
Broncos
3-7
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U