LACChargers
11-4
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
6 mph
9
DENBroncos
6-9
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
1
7
7
15
Broncos
0
3
0
6
9
Spread
-7
Total
UNDER
43.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
276
370
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.36
Passing Yards
160
288
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
31/49(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.17
Rushing Yards
116
82
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-12.42
-16.91
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-16
-4
Sack EPA
-4.42
-1.01
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
51
99
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-4.05
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5
Win Probability
Market73.2%
Model68.3%
Spread Pick
Broncos+7.0
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-97
Home nfelo
1,446
Away nfelo
1,583
Home Field
+31.8
Base HFA
+57.9
Divisional Adj
-26.1
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
-4.3
Final Difference
-133.5
Model Spread
+5.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
C. Keenum
Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22
EPA
EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
9
12
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10
EPA
EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
8
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
18
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Broncos
4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-8-1
O/U