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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ broncos week 17, 2018

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
11-4
23
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
6 mph
9
DENBroncos
6-9
DEN logo
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
51°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
1
7
7
15
Broncos
0
3
0
6
9

Spread

LAC logo
-7

Total

UNDER
43.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Total Yards
276
370
Total Plays
55
75
Yards / Play
5.0
4.9
EPA / Play
-0.19
-0.36
Passing Yards
160
288
Comp/Att
14/24(58%)
31/49(63%)
Yards / Pass
6.7
5.9
EPA / Pass
-0.18
-0.17
Rushing Yards
116
82
Rush Attempts
30
25
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.3
EPA / Rush
-0.20
-0.40
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
1st Downs
17
19
Passing 1st downs
10
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
7
Penalty 1st downs
2
1
3rd Down %
36%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
4
4
3rd Down Attempts
11
14
Red Zone %
67%
0%
Red Zone Conversions
2
--
Red Zone Attempts
3
2
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Broncos logo
Turnovers
3
5
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
1
4
Turnover EPA
-12.42
-16.91
Sacks
1
1
Sack Yards
-16
-4
Sack EPA
-4.42
-1.01
Penalties
6
11
Penalty Yards
51
99
Penalty EPA
-6.15
-4.05

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-6.5
Current
-7.0
Model
-5.5

Win Probability

Market73.2%
Model68.4%
Spread Pick
DEN logo
Broncos+7.0
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+8.2%
Cover Probability
53.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-98
Home nfelo
1,442
Away nfelo
1,582
Home Field
+32.1
Base HFA
+58.5
Divisional Adj
-26.4
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+9.6
Home QB Adjustment
-1.9
Away QB Adjustment
-11.4
Market Regression
-4.4
Final Difference
-134.4
Model Spread
+5.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
-11.4
Value
Ptile
10/14
-1.2
38
10/21
4.1
75
11/04
0.1
47
11/11
-0.4
43
11/18
1.5
57
11/25
6.6
88
12/02
5.3
82
12/09
-0.9
40
12/13
-2.9
28
12/22
-8.4
7
C. Keenum headshot

C. Keenum

Proj. Value
-1.8
Team Elo Adj
-1.9
Value
Ptile
10/14
1.8
60
10/18
-4.0
22
10/28
-1.8
34
11/04
1.3
56
11/18
-0.4
43
11/25
-1.1
38
12/02
-3.9
23
12/09
-1.9
34
12/15
-2.7
30
12/24
-2.3
32

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Chargers logo
Broncos logo

Total

Points / Game
6
12
Yards / Game
13
22
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
18
22

EPA

EPA / Play
7
10
EPA / Pass
3
17
EPA / Rush
9
12

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
17
23
Interceptions / Game
11
3
Fumbles / Game
7
15
Turnover EPA / Game
26
26

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
1
13
RZ Efficiency
9
14
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Broncos logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
24
11
Yards / Game
19
10
Passing Yards / Game
14
8
Rushing Yards / Game
11
10

EPA

EPA / Play
22
9
EPA / Pass
26
8
EPA / Rush
8
17

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
24
25
Interceptions / Game
23
18
Fumbles / Game
13
7
Turnover EPA / Game
21
13

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
28
19
4th Down Efficiency
10
23
RZ Efficiency
18
9

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

8-2
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
24
W
W
O
10/21
1
W
L
U
11/04
8
W
W
U
11/11
14
W
W
U
11/18
-1
L
L
U
11/25
35
W
W
O
12/02
3
W
W
O
12/09
5
W
L
U
12/13
1
W
W
O
12/22
-12
L
L
U
DEN logo

Broncos

4-6
SU
6-4
ATS
1-8-1
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
10/14
-3
L
W
U
10/18
35
W
W
O
10/28
-7
L
W
P
11/04
-2
L
L
U
11/18
1
W
W
U
11/25
7
W
W
U
12/02
14
W
W
U
12/09
-6
L
L
U
12/15
-1
L
L
U
12/24
-13
L
L
U