LACChargers
10-6
28
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
4 mph
31
DENBroncos
4-12
TBD
Empower Field at Mile High
43°F
4 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
10
3
8
28
Broncos
7
10
7
7
31
Spread
+6.5
Total
OVER
38.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
354
471
Total Plays
68
62
Yards / Play
5.2
7.6
EPA / Play
+0.15
+0.18
Passing Yards
295
266
Comp/Att
30/45(67%)
13/24(54%)
Yards / Pass
6.6
11.1
EPA / Pass
+0.28
+0.17
Rushing Yards
59
205
Rush Attempts
22
36
Yards / Rush
2.7
5.7
EPA / Rush
-0.42
+0.14
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
22
Passing 1st downs
17
8
Rushing 1st downs
3
12
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
50%
42%
3rd Down Conversions
7
5
3rd Down Attempts
14
12
Red Zone %
75%
67%
Red Zone Conversions
3
2
Red Zone Attempts
4
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
3
1
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
3
0
Turnover EPA
-3.67
-5.57
Sacks
1
2
Sack Yards
-5
-17
Sack EPA
-0.98
-4.37
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
34
36
Penalty EPA
-3.66
-2.63
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
DENBroncosFavored
Opening
-2.0
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market71.0%
Model61.4%
Spread Pick
Chargers+6.5
Expected Value
+10.1%
Cover Probability
57.6%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-57
Home nfelo
1,460
Away nfelo
1,559
Home Field
+37.8
Base HFA
+42.0
Divisional Adj
-18.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+14.7
Time Adj
--
Net QB Adjustment
+4.7
Home QB Adjustment
-9.3
Away QB Adjustment
-14.0
Market Regression
+98.8
Final Difference
80.5
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-14.0
R. Wilson
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-9.3
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Broncos Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
12
Yards / Game
8
8
Passing Yards / Game
5
9
Rushing Yards / Game
30
10
EPA
EPA / Play
18
13
EPA / Pass
12
7
EPA / Rush
17
14
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
1
Interceptions / Game
6
11
Fumbles / Game
27
20
Turnover EPA / Game
29
14
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
2
4th Down Efficiency
15
30
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Broncos Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
23
Yards / Game
21
20
Passing Yards / Game
9
7
Rushing Yards / Game
21
27
EPA
EPA / Play
28
14
EPA / Pass
29
9
EPA / Rush
27
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
9
16
Interceptions / Game
22
5
Fumbles / Game
11
27
Turnover EPA / Game
12
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
32
11
4th Down Efficiency
16
9
RZ Efficiency
14
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-3-1
ATS
3-7
O/U
Broncos
2-8
SU
5-5
ATS
4-6
O/U