LACChargers
1-2
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
6 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
8
10
7
0
25
Buccaneers
7
7
14
10
38
Spread
+7.5
Total
OVER
42.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
324
484
Total Plays
50
73
Yards / Play
6.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
278
--
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.28
Rushing Yards
46
115
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.32
-10.58
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.54
--
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
90
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-7.87
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0
Win Probability
Market74.4%
Model69.4%
Spread Pick
Chargers+7.5
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
59.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+103
Home nfelo
1,578
Away nfelo
1,491
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
142.1
Model Spread
-6.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
T. Brady
Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
1
EPA
EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
31
8
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
30
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17
EPA
EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
5
19
EPA / Rush
21
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
11
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Buccaneers
6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
7-3
O/U