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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ buccaneers week 4, 2020

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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LAC logo
LACChargers
1-2
31
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
6 mph
38
TBBuccaneers
2-1
TB logo
TBD
Raymond James Stadium
75°F
6 mph

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
8
10
7
0
25
Buccaneers
7
7
14
10
38

Spread

LAC logo
+7.5

Total

OVER
42.5

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Buccaneers logo
Total Yards
324
484
Total Plays
50
73
Yards / Play
6.5
6.6
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.12
Passing Yards
278
--
Comp/Att
20/25(80%)
30/46(65%)
Yards / Pass
11.1
--
EPA / Pass
+0.55
+0.28
Rushing Yards
46
115
Rush Attempts
23
27
Yards / Rush
2.0
4.3
EPA / Rush
-0.34
-0.06
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Buccaneers logo
1st Downs
15
28
Passing 1st downs
9
20
Rushing 1st downs
4
6
Penalty 1st downs
2
2
3rd Down %
40%
45%
3rd Down Conversions
4
5
3rd Down Attempts
10
11
Red Zone %
100%
75%
Red Zone Conversions
1
3
Red Zone Attempts
1
4
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Buccaneers logo
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
1
1
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
-7.32
-10.58
Sacks
2
--
Sack Yards
-12
--
Sack EPA
-3.54
--
Penalties
7
8
Penalty Yards
60
90
Penalty EPA
-7.21
-7.87

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
TB logo
TBBuccaneersFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-7.5
Model
-6.0

Win Probability

Market74.4%
Model69.2%
Spread Pick
LAC logo
Chargers+7.5
Projected +EV
Expected Value
+12.7%
Cover Probability
59.0%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+101
Home nfelo
1,577
Away nfelo
1,492
Home Field
+11.8
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+2.2
Time Adj
+3.4
Net QB Adjustment
+3.8
Home QB Adjustment
+4.6
Away QB Adjustment
+0.8
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
140.8
Model Spread
-6.0

Quarterbacks

J. Herbert headshot

J. Herbert

Proj. Value
-0.4
Team Elo Adj
+0.8
Value
Ptile
09/20
3.9
72
09/27
2.8
65
T. Brady headshot

T. Brady

Proj. Value
+2.8
Team Elo Adj
+4.6
Value
Ptile
11/24
-5.4
17
12/01
-1.4
44
12/08
-5.2
19
12/15
-5.3
18
12/21
7.1
90
12/29
-3.3
29
01/04
-4.3
23
09/13
-0.7
41
09/20
-0.4
43
09/27
3.9
72

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Buccaneers Defense
Chargers logo
Buccaneers logo

Total

Points / Game
18
7
Yards / Game
10
8
Passing Yards / Game
2
21
Rushing Yards / Game
18
1

EPA

EPA / Play
23
6
EPA / Pass
10
6
EPA / Rush
31
8

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
8
30
Interceptions / Game
7
3
Fumbles / Game
8
10
Turnover EPA / Game
30
31

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
10
17
4th Down Efficiency
25
13
RZ Efficiency
21
11
Buccaneers Offense vs Chargers Defense
Buccaneers logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
2
23
Yards / Game
9
10
Passing Yards / Game
12
10
Rushing Yards / Game
25
17

EPA

EPA / Play
5
13
EPA / Pass
5
19
EPA / Rush
21
13

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
27
18
Interceptions / Game
15
16
Fumbles / Game
4
24
Turnover EPA / Game
22
12

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
9
22
4th Down Efficiency
13
26
RZ Efficiency
11
8

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

2-8
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/07
-2
L
L
O
11/18
-7
L
L
U
12/01
-3
L
L
O
12/08
35
W
W
O
12/15
-29
L
L
O
12/22
-7
L
L
U
12/29
-10
L
P
O
09/13
3
W
W
U
09/20
-3
L
W
U
09/27
-5
L
L
U
TB logo

Buccaneers

6-4
SU
5-3-2
ATS
7-3
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/17
-17
L
L
O
11/24
13
W
W
O
12/01
17
W
W
U
12/08
3
W
P
O
12/15
21
W
W
O
12/21
-3
L
P
U
12/29
-6
L
L
O
09/13
-11
L
L
O
09/20
14
W
W
O
09/27
18
W
W
U