LACChargers
3-2
15
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
017
ARICardinals
2-4
TBD
State Farm Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
6
3
6
15
Cardinals
0
7
0
10
17
Spread
+1
Total
UNDER
44.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
395
326
Total Plays
64
55
Yards / Play
6.2
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.13
+0.11
Passing Yards
336
--
Comp/Att
27/39(69%)
14/26(54%)
Yards / Pass
8.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.15
-0.01
Rushing Yards
59
181
Rush Attempts
22
29
Yards / Rush
2.7
6.2
EPA / Rush
-0.12
+0.04
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
20
22
Passing 1st downs
14
10
Rushing 1st downs
5
10
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
43%
29%
3rd Down Conversions
6
2
3rd Down Attempts
14
7
Red Zone %
0%
50%
Red Zone Conversions
--
1
Red Zone Attempts
1
2
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
2
Interceptions
0
1
Fumbles
1
1
Turnover EPA
-3.99
-1.97
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-13
--
Sack EPA
-3.61
--
Penalties
5
3
Penalty Yards
57
15
Penalty EPA
-5.95
-1.95
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-2.5
Current
-1.0
Model
-0.5
Win Probability
Market52.3%
Model51.3%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+17
Home nfelo
1,451
Away nfelo
1,521
Home Field
+52.8
Base HFA
+45.1
Divisional Adj
--
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.8
Time Adj
-8.1
Net QB Adjustment
+35.0
Home QB Adjustment
+21.2
Away QB Adjustment
-13.8
Market Regression
+3.5
Final Difference
-9.1
Model Spread
+0.5
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
-13.8
K. Murray
Proj. Value
+2.4
Team Elo Adj
+21.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Cardinals Defense
Total
Points / Game
13
16
Yards / Game
20
20
Passing Yards / Game
16
8
Rushing Yards / Game
20
20
EPA
EPA / Play
13
25
EPA / Pass
14
24
EPA / Rush
19
28
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
26
28
Interceptions / Game
5
25
Fumbles / Game
3
19
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
13
28
4th Down Efficiency
13
17
RZ Efficiency
18
8
Cardinals Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
11
2
Yards / Game
11
11
Passing Yards / Game
28
18
Rushing Yards / Game
7
14
EPA
EPA / Play
8
4
EPA / Pass
11
4
EPA / Rush
5
11
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
14
Interceptions / Game
11
7
Fumbles / Game
22
13
Turnover EPA / Game
20
23
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
4
4th Down Efficiency
27
25
RZ Efficiency
17
2
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Cardinals
3-7
SU
5-5
ATS
6-3-1
O/U