LACChargers
1-0
24
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
027
KCChiefs
1-0
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
70°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
3
7
7
7
24
Chiefs
0
7
7
7
21
Spread
+4
Total
UNDER
52.5
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
401
319
Total Plays
74
54
Yards / Play
5.4
5.9
EPA / Play
+0.03
+0.08
Passing Yards
326
226
Comp/Att
33/48(69%)
24/35(69%)
Yards / Pass
6.8
6.5
EPA / Pass
-0.02
+0.14
Rushing Yards
75
93
Rush Attempts
24
18
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
+0.07
-0.15
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
21
15
Passing 1st downs
15
11
Rushing 1st downs
5
2
Penalty 1st downs
1
2
3rd Down %
31%
33%
3rd Down Conversions
5
4
3rd Down Attempts
16
12
Red Zone %
60%
33%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
5
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
1
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-13.03
--
Sacks
2
1
Sack Yards
-8
-9
Sack EPA
-3.62
-2.00
Penalties
3
6
Penalty Yards
25
54
Penalty EPA
-5.91
-4.14
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-4.0
Current
-4.0
Model
-4.0
Win Probability
Market64.7%
Model64.7%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+124
Home nfelo
1,640
Away nfelo
1,546
Home Field
+20.2
Base HFA
+37.4
Divisional Adj
-16.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+13.1
Time Adj
-13.4
Net QB Adjustment
+10.0
Home QB Adjustment
+20.5
Away QB Adjustment
+10.5
Market Regression
--
Final Difference
105.3
Model Spread
-4.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+10.5
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+20.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
12
18
Yards / Game
8
14
Passing Yards / Game
5
28
Rushing Yards / Game
30
8
EPA
EPA / Play
18
27
EPA / Pass
12
15
EPA / Rush
17
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
30
Interceptions / Game
6
21
Fumbles / Game
27
2
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
8
22
4th Down Efficiency
15
24
RZ Efficiency
18
28
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
23
Yards / Game
1
20
Passing Yards / Game
12
7
Rushing Yards / Game
20
27
EPA
EPA / Play
1
14
EPA / Pass
1
9
EPA / Rush
6
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
31
16
Interceptions / Game
7
5
Fumbles / Game
6
27
Turnover EPA / Game
27
26
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
2
11
4th Down Efficiency
2
9
RZ Efficiency
2
12
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
7-3
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
7-3
ATS
8-2
O/U