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  1. nfelo...
  2. predictions...
  3. chargers @ chiefs week 4, 2012

Game Summary

Spread
Total

Model

Quarterbacks

Matchup

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nfelo

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    Offensive and Defensive EPA Tiers
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LAC logo
LACChargers
2-1
37
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
0
20
KCChiefs
1-2
KC logo
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
0

Game Summary

Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
17
4
0
10
31
Chiefs
0
6
7
7
20

Spread

LAC logo
-2.5

Total

OVER
43

Game Statistics

General
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Total Yards
293
349
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.23
Passing Yards
189
234
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.32
Rushing Yards
104
115
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-28.69
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-17
Sack EPA
-3.99
-3.41
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
75
80
Penalty EPA
-4.77
-8.16

Game Preview

nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game

Model

Projected Winner
LAC logo
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5

Win Probability

Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,476
Away nfelo
1,535
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
-38.3
Final Difference
-38.3
Model Spread
+2.5

Quarterbacks

P. Rivers headshot

P. Rivers

Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
Value
Ptile
11/20
2.6
70
11/27
-3.7
27
12/05
9.9
97
12/11
5.1
82
12/18
7.1
91
12/24
-1.5
40
01/01
6.4
88
09/10
2.7
67
09/16
3.1
71
09/23
-6.4
11
M. Cassel headshot

M. Cassel

Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Value
Ptile
09/25
0.8
58
10/02
0.8
59
10/09
6.6
89
10/23
-6.5
12
10/31
-2.4
34
11/06
-4.5
22
11/13
-7.5
7
09/09
-0.4
47
09/16
-1.4
40
09/23
-5.3
16

Team Matchup Ranks

Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Chargers logo
Chiefs logo

Total

Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27

EPA

EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
28
22

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
14
31
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Chiefs logo
Chargers logo

Total

Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5

EPA

EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
16
3

Negative Plays

Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27

Conversion

3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32

Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)

LAC logo

Chargers

6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/20
-11
L
L
O
11/27
-3
L
L
U
12/05
24
W
W
O
12/11
27
W
W
U
12/18
20
W
W
O
12/24
-28
L
L
U
01/01
12
W
W
O
09/10
8
W
W
U
09/16
28
W
W
O
09/23
-24
L
L
U
KC logo

Chiefs

4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U
Margin
W/L
ATS
O/U
11/21
-31
L
L
U
11/27
-4
L
W
U
12/04
7
W
W
U
12/11
-27
L
L
O
12/18
5
W
W
U
12/24
-3
L
L
U
01/01
4
W
W
U
09/09
-16
L
L
O
09/16
-18
L
L
O
09/23
3
W
W
U