LACChargers
2-1
37
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
020
KCChiefs
1-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
67°F
0Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
17
4
0
10
31
Chiefs
0
6
7
7
20
Spread
-2.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
293
349
Total Plays
60
67
Yards / Play
4.9
5.2
EPA / Play
+0.12
-0.23
Passing Yards
189
234
Comp/Att
18/23(78%)
24/43(56%)
Yards / Pass
8.2
5.4
EPA / Pass
+0.16
-0.32
Rushing Yards
104
115
Rush Attempts
34
22
Yards / Rush
3.1
5.2
EPA / Rush
-0.15
-0.41
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
19
25
Passing 1st downs
9
15
Rushing 1st downs
7
6
Penalty 1st downs
3
4
3rd Down %
25%
40%
3rd Down Conversions
3
4
3rd Down Attempts
12
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
6
Interceptions
1
3
Fumbles
0
3
Turnover EPA
-4.07
-28.69
Sacks
3
2
Sack Yards
-20
-17
Sack EPA
-3.99
-3.41
Penalties
7
9
Penalty Yards
75
80
Penalty EPA
-4.77
-8.16
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
N/A
Current
-2.5
Model
-2.5
Win Probability
Market56.6%
Model55.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
-8
Home nfelo
1,478
Away nfelo
1,537
Home Field
+56.7
Base HFA
+62.5
Divisional Adj
-28.2
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
+22.4
Net QB Adjustment
-5.4
Home QB Adjustment
-6.2
Away QB Adjustment
-0.8
Market Regression
-38.3
Final Difference
-38.3
Model Spread
+2.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-0.8
M. Cassel
Proj. Value
-3.1
Team Elo Adj
-6.2
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
19
25
Yards / Game
31
19
Passing Yards / Game
13
4
Rushing Yards / Game
28
27
EPA
EPA / Play
19
31
EPA / Pass
20
32
EPA / Rush
28
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
20
10
Interceptions / Game
14
31
Fumbles / Game
23
26
Turnover EPA / Game
18
2
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
17
4th Down Efficiency
14
30
RZ Efficiency
26
16
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
32
15
Yards / Game
24
9
Passing Yards / Game
31
12
Rushing Yards / Game
5
5
EPA
EPA / Play
31
9
EPA / Pass
31
13
EPA / Rush
16
3
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
3
3
Interceptions / Game
31
18
Fumbles / Game
28
7
Turnover EPA / Game
4
27
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
27
29
4th Down Efficiency
19
8
RZ Efficiency
32
32
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
6-4
SU
6-4
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
4-6
SU
5-5
ATS
3-7
O/U