LACChargers
10-3
29
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
5 mph
28
KCChiefs
11-2
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
39°F
5 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
15
29
Chiefs
14
0
7
7
28
Spread
+3.5
Total
OVER
54
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
409
294
Total Plays
68
53
Yards / Play
6.0
5.5
EPA / Play
+0.25
+0.29
Passing Yards
290
234
Comp/Att
26/39(67%)
24/34(71%)
Yards / Pass
7.4
6.9
EPA / Pass
+0.17
+0.30
Rushing Yards
119
60
Rush Attempts
24
17
Yards / Rush
5.0
3.5
EPA / Rush
+0.20
+0.18
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
30
22
Passing 1st downs
18
12
Rushing 1st downs
7
7
Penalty 1st downs
5
3
3rd Down %
60%
60%
3rd Down Conversions
6
6
3rd Down Attempts
10
10
Red Zone %
80%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
4
Red Zone Attempts
5
4
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
0
Interceptions
2
0
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-7.62
--
Sacks
5
2
Sack Yards
-25
-9
Sack EPA
-6.90
-0.97
Penalties
7
10
Penalty Yards
50
66
Penalty EPA
-6.40
-11.79
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-3.0
Current
-3.5
Model
-3.5
Win Probability
Market62.5%
Model62.5%
Spread Pick
No +EV spread bet identified
Model finds no value in current lines
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+49
Home nfelo
1,608
Away nfelo
1,602
Home Field
+11.0
Base HFA
+57.4
Divisional Adj
-25.9
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-20.6
Net QB Adjustment
+31.8
Home QB Adjustment
+40.5
Away QB Adjustment
+8.8
Market Regression
+23.4
Final Difference
88.7
Model Spread
-3.5
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
+8.8
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+2.6
Team Elo Adj
+40.5
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
24
Yards / Game
13
31
Passing Yards / Game
5
30
Rushing Yards / Game
18
27
EPA
EPA / Play
7
25
EPA / Pass
3
16
EPA / Rush
9
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
17
28
Interceptions / Game
11
9
Fumbles / Game
7
7
Turnover EPA / Game
26
31
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
16
26
4th Down Efficiency
1
28
RZ Efficiency
9
29
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
1
11
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
7
8
Rushing Yards / Game
15
10
EPA
EPA / Play
1
9
EPA / Pass
1
8
EPA / Rush
1
17
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
29
25
Interceptions / Game
10
18
Fumbles / Game
12
7
Turnover EPA / Game
29
13
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
19
4th Down Efficiency
4
23
RZ Efficiency
1
9
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
9-1
SU
6-4
ATS
4-6
O/U
Chiefs
8-2
SU
5-4-1
ATS
5-4-1
O/U