LACChargers
5-10
21
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
16 mph
31
KCChiefs
11-4
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
40°F
16 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
0
7
7
7
21
Chiefs
3
7
14
7
31
Spread
10
P
Total
OVER
46
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
366
336
Total Plays
74
48
Yards / Play
4.9
7.0
EPA / Play
+0.07
+0.33
Passing Yards
258
--
Comp/Att
31/46(67%)
16/25(64%)
Yards / Pass
5.6
--
EPA / Pass
+0.20
-0.09
Rushing Yards
108
162
Rush Attempts
25
23
Yards / Rush
4.3
7.0
EPA / Rush
+0.02
+0.44
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
25
16
Passing 1st downs
14
5
Rushing 1st downs
8
9
Penalty 1st downs
3
2
3rd Down %
53%
70%
3rd Down Conversions
8
7
3rd Down Attempts
15
10
Red Zone %
75%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
3
1
Red Zone Attempts
4
1
Negative Plays
Turnovers
2
1
Interceptions
2
1
Fumbles
0
0
Turnover EPA
-4.80
-5.40
Sacks
3
--
Sack Yards
-23
--
Sack EPA
-4.64
--
Penalties
8
5
Penalty Yards
40
39
Penalty EPA
-6.66
-3.46
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
KCChiefsFavored
Opening
-7.5
Current
-10.0
Model
-11.0
Win Probability
Market79.5%
Model82.0%
Spread Pick
Chiefs-10.0
Expected Value
+6.5%
Cover Probability
51.8%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+295
Home nfelo
1,693
Away nfelo
1,479
Home Field
+57.3
Base HFA
+45.6
Divisional Adj
-20.6
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
+15.9
Time Adj
+16.3
Net QB Adjustment
+24.1
Home QB Adjustment
+16.7
Away QB Adjustment
-7.4
Market Regression
+19.1
Final Difference
264.0
Model Spread
-11.0
Quarterbacks
P. Rivers
Proj. Value
+0.5
Team Elo Adj
-7.4
P. Mahomes
Proj. Value
+3.0
Team Elo Adj
+16.7
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
21
10
Yards / Game
10
17
Passing Yards / Game
3
15
Rushing Yards / Game
28
25
EPA
EPA / Play
11
16
EPA / Pass
11
9
EPA / Rush
25
30
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
4
28
Interceptions / Game
29
4
Fumbles / Game
18
24
Turnover EPA / Game
4
22
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
6
10
4th Down Efficiency
9
17
RZ Efficiency
22
10
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
2
13
Yards / Game
4
6
Passing Yards / Game
5
3
Rushing Yards / Game
22
18
EPA
EPA / Play
2
22
EPA / Pass
2
22
EPA / Rush
7
22
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
22
21
Interceptions / Game
3
21
Fumbles / Game
14
30
Turnover EPA / Game
29
1
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
29
4th Down Efficiency
3
28
RZ Efficiency
11
21
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
3-7
SU
3-6-1
ATS
5-5
O/U
Chiefs
7-3
SU
7-3
ATS
4-6
O/U