LACChargers
6-9
38
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
6 mph
21
KCChiefs
14-1
TBD
GEHA Field at Arrowhead Stadium
35°F
6 mph
Game Summary
Scoring
1
2
3
4
Total
Chargers
7
15
7
7
36
Chiefs
7
7
0
7
21
Spread
-6.5
Total
OVER
43
Game Statistics
General
Total Yards
418
268
Total Plays
70
50
Yards / Play
6.0
5.4
EPA / Play
+0.40
+0.18
Passing Yards
283
217
Comp/Att
22/32(69%)
23/32(72%)
Yards / Pass
8.8
6.8
EPA / Pass
+0.65
+0.40
Rushing Yards
135
51
Rush Attempts
35
17
Yards / Rush
3.9
3.0
EPA / Rush
-0.10
-0.27
Downs & Conversions
1st Downs
29
18
Passing 1st downs
16
13
Rushing 1st downs
10
4
Penalty 1st downs
3
1
3rd Down %
43%
67%
3rd Down Conversions
3
6
3rd Down Attempts
7
9
Red Zone %
67%
100%
Red Zone Conversions
4
3
Red Zone Attempts
6
3
Negative Plays
Turnovers
1
0
Interceptions
0
0
Fumbles
1
0
Turnover EPA
+4.98
--
Sacks
3
1
Sack Yards
-21
-1
Sack EPA
-3.94
-1.37
Penalties
4
5
Penalty Yards
23
69
Penalty EPA
-2.72
-7.22
Game Preview
nfelo projected winner, spread pick, starting QB, matchup details, and trends as they were before the game
Model
Projected Winner
LACChargersFavored
Opening
-3.5
Current
-6.5
Model
-3.0
Win Probability
Market71.4%
Model61.3%
Spread Pick
Chiefs+6.5
Expected Value
+20.4%
Cover Probability
63.1%
Projection Detail
nfelo Difference
+83
Home nfelo
1,696
Away nfelo
1,421
Home Field
+2.3
Base HFA
+6.3
Divisional Adj
-2.8
Home Bye Adj
--
Away Bye Adj
--
Surface Adj
--
Time Adj
-1.1
Net QB Adjustment
-193.6
Home QB Adjustment
-178.4
Away QB Adjustment
+15.3
Market Regression
-73.4
Final Difference
-80.3
Model Spread
+3.0
Quarterbacks
J. Herbert
Proj. Value
+0.3
Team Elo Adj
+15.3
C. Henne
Proj. Value
-2.5
Team Elo Adj
-178.4
Team Matchup Ranks
Chargers Offense vs Chiefs Defense
Total
Points / Game
18
10
Yards / Game
10
15
Passing Yards / Game
2
17
Rushing Yards / Game
18
19
EPA
EPA / Play
23
23
EPA / Pass
10
12
EPA / Rush
31
31
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
8
27
Interceptions / Game
7
6
Fumbles / Game
8
20
Turnover EPA / Game
30
11
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
10
13
4th Down Efficiency
25
29
RZ Efficiency
21
32
Chiefs Offense vs Chargers Defense
Total
Points / Game
6
23
Yards / Game
1
10
Passing Yards / Game
8
10
Rushing Yards / Game
16
17
EPA
EPA / Play
2
13
EPA / Pass
2
19
EPA / Rush
9
13
Negative Plays
Sacks / Game
14
18
Interceptions / Game
5
16
Fumbles / Game
11
24
Turnover EPA / Game
29
12
Conversion
3rd Down Efficiency
3
22
4th Down Efficiency
11
26
RZ Efficiency
19
8
Recent Trends (Last 10 Games)
Chargers
5-5
SU
4-6
ATS
6-4
O/U
Chiefs
10-0
SU
4-6
ATS
5-5
O/U